The simmering cauldron of Kenya’s political landscape is exacting a heavy financial toll, forcing insurers into a defensive crouch. As civil unrest becomes an erratic but persistent feature of the business environment, the sector is bracing for a dramatic spike in claims that threatens to rewrite the risk playbook for 2026.

The warning signs are flashing red. Following a year of widespread protests that left a trail of shattered glass and looted inventory, industry captains are now projecting a significant surge in the uptake of political violence and terrorism (PVT) cover. The days of treating political risk as a secondary concern are over; for Kenyan businesses, it is now a survival imperative. The sheer scale of the losses absorbed by the sector in the last 24 months has shattered any illusion of immunity.

The Multi-Million Shilling Reality

The numbers paint a stark picture of the damage. In a revelation that underscores the severity of the threat, CIC Group has this week processed a staggering KSh 134 million payout to retail giant Naivas. This payment is not an isolated incident but part of a grim trend. It brings the total claims settled for the retailer to over KSh 300 million in just two years—a figure that nearly matches the KSh 400 million CIC paid out for all political violence-related claims in the entirety of 2024.

Fred Ruoro, the Managing Director of General Insurance at CIC, did not mince words when addressing the shift. "With political unrest now one of the biggest threats to business continuity globally and locally, more companies are realizing they are exposed," he stated. His assessment reflects a broader anxiety gripping the private sector: the realization that standard fire and theft policies are woefully inadequate against the fury of a politically charged mob.

• The Naivas Case: A single retailer absorbing over KSh 300 million in damage highlights the vulnerability of high-visibility brands.
• Sector-Wide Impact: The ripple effect is being felt across supply chains, with insurers now forced to recalibrate premiums and risk appetites.
• The 2026 Outlook: Analysts predict a double-digit percentage rise in PVT policy subscriptions as businesses rush to inoculate themselves against future shocks.

A New Era of Risk

The implications extend beyond mere balance sheets. The frequency of these payouts suggests a systemic shift in Kenya`s operational risk profile. Investors are watching closely. A business environment where political grievances manifest as physical destruction is a hard sell for foreign direct investment. The insurance sector, often the canary in the coal mine, is singing a song of caution.

As the year unfolds, the question is no longer if political violence will strike again, but how much it will cost when it does. For now, the insurers are paying the bill, but ultimately, it is the Kenyan economy that is bleeding value.