Lamu County, Kenya – Security analysts warn that a recent surge in al Shabaab attacks is underscoring the fragility of regional stability, just as the African Union’s Somalia peacekeeping mission grapples with severe funding shortages. Kenyan officials confirmed that three soldiers were killed in Lamu on Tuesday when their convoy hit an explosive device, part of a string of militant ambushes along border supply routes.

This incident followed earlier assaults in Kenya, including attacks on police convoys and civilians in Lamu and Mandera counties. Experts say the militants’ growing boldness reflects setbacks in Somalia, where al Shabaab has seized territory and key towns amid political turmoil. A recent assault on Mogadishu’s military academy and the capture of strategic hubs illustrate how the group is capitalizing on weaknesses both within Somalia and across the border.

Compounding the threat is the strained African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (Aussom), which replaced the previous AU force this year. Aussom faces a $96 million funding gap and shortages of troops and equipment. Despite a UN resolution allowing up to 75% budget support, key donors like the US have balked at direct funding. “The tempo of al Shabaab’s attacks shows the mission’s limitations without adequate funding and support,” a senior Kenyan security official said, warning that the risk to Kenya will grow unless resources are provided.

Kenyan and Somali leaders have appealed internationally for more aid, underscoring that al Shabaab’s resurgence threatens not just Somalia but its neighbors. With funding delays and operational challenges, observers say urgent action is needed. The AU’s ability to contain the militants will depend on sustained backing — a demand being voiced at recent international summits — as analysts caution that continued funding gaps could embolden al Shabaab and destabilize the wider Horn of Africa.