In the heart of Tehran, a new mural has risen over Enghelab Square, casting a long shadow that reaches all the way to Nairobi. The image is apocalyptic: a US aircraft carrier, its deck strewn with broken planes and blood, emblazoned with the biblical warning: "If you sow the wind, you will reap the whirlwind." As the USS Abraham Lincoln steams towards the Persian Gulf, the drums of war are beating louder than they have in years.

This is not just saber-rattling. Iranian officials have explicitly warned that any US strike will be met with "all-out war." For Kenya, a nation battling an economic crisis, this geopolitical standoff is a nightmare scenario. A war in the Gulf means one thing: oil prices hitting the roof. And when oil goes up, everything in Kenya—from unga to matatu fares—follows.

The "Trump" Factor

President Donald Trump’s rhetoric—moving ships "just in case"—has done little to calm nerves. The unpredictability of the US administration is a destabilizing force. The mural in Tehran is a direct response to this aggression, a visual promise of mutual destruction. It captures a mood of defiance that resonates in the Global South, where US foreign policy is often viewed with deep suspicion.

"The Americans play with fire far from their homes," notes international relations expert Dr. Ali Hassan in Nairobi. "But the smoke chokes us here. If the Strait of Hormuz closes, Kenya’s economy will collapse within weeks."

• The Oil Shock: Energy experts predict that a conflict could push oil past $150 a barrel. For the Kenyan "Wanjiku," this would mean fuel prices hitting KES 250 per liter, sparking renewed inflation and unrest.
• The Proxy War: There are fears that the conflict could spill over into proxy attacks in East Africa, given the region’s strategic importance and history of terror incidents.

A World on Edge

The mural in Enghelab Square is more than propaganda; it is a prophecy of doom. "Reaping the whirlwind" is a warning against the hubris of power. As the warships converge and the rhetoric escalates, the world holds its breath.

In Nairobi, we watch the skies and the pumps, knowing that in a globalized world, a mural in Tehran can predict the price of our next meal. The wind has been sown. We can only pray we do not reap the whirlwind.