Hopes for a diplomatic end to the war in Ukraine have been dashed after high-stakes talks in Moscow between Russian officials and a United States delegation ended without a breakthrough. The collapse was punctuated by a stark warning from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who declared his country is “ready” for war with Europe if provoked.

The diplomatic failure means the conflict, which has disrupted global supply chains and driven up costs for essentials in Kenya, is set to continue. For ordinary Kenyans, this points to sustained high prices for fuel, fertilizer, and staple foods like wheat flour.

Diplomatic Deadlock in Moscow

After a nearly five-hour meeting at the Kremlin, Russian and American representatives failed to find common ground on a US-proposed peace plan. Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov stated the two sides were “neither further nor closer” to resolving the crisis, emphasizing that significant disagreements over territory remain the primary obstacle.

The American delegation, which included President Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner, had arrived in Moscow to discuss a revised version of a peace proposal. However, President Putin preceded the talks by accusing European powers of sabotaging the peace process with “unacceptable demands,” a combative tone that foreshadowed the meeting's outcome.

The Kenyan Connection: A Prolonged Pinch

While the war rages thousands of kilometers away, its economic shockwaves are keenly felt in Kenya. The conflict has been a key driver of inflation, affecting the price of numerous goods:

• Fuel Prices: Global energy market volatility caused by the war directly impacts the cost of petrol and diesel at the pump in Kenya.
• Food Security: As major global suppliers of wheat and fertilizer, Russia and Ukraine's conflict disrupts agricultural supply chains, leading to higher prices for bread and other staples. One study noted that the war may have cost Kenya's economy up to 2.8% of its GDP in 2022.
• Cost of Living: These price hikes contribute significantly to the rising cost of living, disproportionately affecting low-income households across the country.

The government has previously used subsidies on fuel and fertilizer to cushion citizens, but these measures come at a substantial fiscal cost. The failure to secure peace suggests that Kenyan consumers and farmers should brace for continued price instability.

No End in Sight

With diplomacy at a standstill, the prospects for a near-term resolution are bleak. Ushakov confirmed that no further summits between the Russian and US presidents are imminent. The international community now watches as the conflict, and its far-reaching consequences, grind on with no clear off-ramp, leaving nations like Kenya to navigate the persistent economic fallout.