Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday declared that Moscow is ready for a peaceful end to the war in Ukraine, but firmly restated a set of uncompromising demands that Kyiv has consistently rejected. Speaking at his marathon year-end news conference, Putin emphasized that Russia's core conditions, first laid out in June 2024, remain unchanged.

This uncompromising stance signals that despite ongoing diplomatic overtures, the nearly four-year conflict is far from a resolution that would satisfy both sides. For Kenyans, the continuation of the war means sustained pressure on the prices of essential goods, as the conflict continues to disrupt global supply chains.

The Kremlin's Unchanged Demands

President Putin's conditions for a ceasefire and the start of negotiations are extensive and touch on Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. He insisted that any peaceful resolution must address what he termed the "root causes" of the crisis. The key demands include:

• Territorial Concessions: Ukraine must withdraw its troops from the entire territories of four regions—Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia—which Russia claims to have annexed.
• NATO Abandonment: Kyiv must formally abandon its long-held ambition to join the NATO military alliance and commit to a neutral status.
• Demilitarization: Ukraine would need to agree to limits on the size of its army.
• Lifting of Sanctions: All Western financial sanctions against Russia must be dropped as a precondition.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated these terms are unacceptable, viewing them as a demand for capitulation. Western leaders have echoed this sentiment, with U.S. and European officials arguing that Putin is in no position to make such demands on a sovereign nation.

Impact on the Kenyan Household

While the frontlines are thousands of kilometres away, the economic war hits home. The conflict has significantly disrupted global supplies of wheat, fertilizer, and fuel, commodities crucial to Kenya's economy. Kenya imports a significant portion of its wheat from both Russia and Ukraine. The war-induced price shocks have been a major driver of the high cost of living, affecting everything from the price of bread to transport fares. President William Ruto has acknowledged the war's immense impact on the disruption of supply chains for grains and fertilisers.

The Kenyan government has shifted its foreign policy to a more neutral stance on the conflict, aligning with the African Group's non-aligned position, a change from its initial strong condemnation of the invasion. This diplomatic shift comes as the country navigates the complex economic and geopolitical fallout. More directly, the conflict has drawn in Kenyan nationals, with reports suggesting over 200 may be fighting for Russia, lured by recruitment networks.

A Stalled Path to Peace

Despite Putin's assertion that he sees "certain signals" from Kyiv about a readiness for dialogue, his public demands leave little common ground. International reactions have been skeptical, with leaders from Germany, Poland, and the U.S. insisting that any meaningful negotiations can only begin after a complete and unconditional ceasefire—a step Moscow has not agreed to. While diplomatic efforts, including a U.S.-led peace plan, are ongoing, the gap between the two sides' fundamental positions remains vast. Putin claimed his forces have seized the "strategic initiative" on the battlefield, suggesting he sees little reason to soften his terms now.

For now, the prospect of a lasting peace remains distant. As world leaders continue to navigate the impasse, the economic consequences will continue to ripple outwards, felt keenly in the markets and homes of Nairobi and across Kenya.