Russian President Vladimir Putin declared on Thursday that a peace plan discussed with the United States could form a basis to end the war, but only if Ukraine withdraws its forces from occupied territories. Speaking during a visit to Kyrgyzstan, Putin’s message was uncompromising, stating Russia would halt its offensive if Kyiv’s troops leave, otherwise, “we will achieve our aims militarily.”

This high-stakes diplomatic maneuvering directly impacts the wallets of Kenyans. The nearly four-year conflict has repeatedly disrupted global supply chains, driving up the cost of fuel, fertilizer, and essential food items like wheat, a major import for Kenya from the region. President William Ruto has previously noted the war's role in escalating food prices and the high cost of living in Kenya.

A Contentious Path to Peace

The announcement follows recent talks in Geneva where US and Ukrainian officials refined an initial 28-point American proposal. That original plan, reportedly skewed towards Russian demands, included severe conditions such as limiting the size of Ukraine's military and banning it from joining NATO. While the revised framework is said to be more aligned with Kyiv's positions, the most sensitive issues, including territory, have been left for presidential-level discussions.

Putin reiterated his stance that Ukraine's leadership is “illegitimate,” complicating the prospect of a binding agreement. He insists on the recognition of Russian rule over Crimea and the Donbas region as a core condition for any settlement. These demands remain a firm red line for Kyiv, which has ruled out ceding territory.

The Envoy and the Economy

Adding another layer of complexity is the role of US special envoy Steve Witkoff, a long-time business associate of President Trump. Witkoff, who is scheduled to visit Moscow next week, has faced sharp criticism after a leaked phone call allegedly revealed him advising a Kremlin aide on how to negotiate with the White House. Putin dismissed the accusations of bias as “nonsense.”

For Kenyans, the outcome of these talks is not a distant foreign affair. The war has contributed significantly to economic pressure at home:

• Food Prices: Disruptions to wheat and fertilizer exports from Russia and Ukraine have directly increased the cost of staples like bread and ugali. Kenya has historically relied on the region for a significant portion of its wheat imports.
• Fuel and Transport: Global energy price hikes, driven by the conflict, have led to higher fuel costs, increasing transport expenses for both goods and people across the country.
• Economic Strain: The war contributed to a slowdown in Kenya's economic growth, with one study suggesting the conflict may have cost the country 2.8% of its GDP in 2022.

While diplomatic channels remain open, the vast gap between Moscow's demands and Kyiv's non-negotiables suggests a difficult and uncertain road ahead. The resolution, or continuation, of this conflict will continue to be felt not just on the frontlines, but in the markets and homes of ordinary Kenyans.