Russian President Vladimir Putin has drawn a firm line for ending the war in Ukraine, stating that peace is only possible if Kyiv surrenders occupied territories. Speaking in Kyrgyzstan, Putin remarked that a U.S.-backed peace proposal could be a foundation for future agreements, but his core demand for Ukrainian troops to withdraw from regions Russia now claims remains non-negotiable.

For Kenyans, the prolonged conflict, now approaching its fourth year, is not a distant headline but a direct hit on the household budget. The war has consistently disrupted global supply chains, causing sharp increases in the prices of fuel, fertilizer, and wheat—critical imports for Kenya's economy. These spikes in cost have slowed economic recovery and threatened food security across the nation.

The Sticking Points of Peace

Putin's uncompromising position requires Ukraine to withdraw from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, large parts of which Russia does not fully control. He also reiterated that Kyiv must abandon its ambitions to join the NATO military alliance. "If Ukrainian troops leave the territories they occupy, then we will stop fighting," Putin stated. "If they don’t, we will achieve our aims militarily."

This demand is a significant barrier to negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's government has consistently ruled out ceding any territory. The international community remains divided, with U.S. and European officials working on separate but converging peace frameworks. A recent 28-point plan, reportedly influenced by Moscow, faced criticism for its punishing conditions on Kyiv, leading to a revised version after talks in Geneva.

Kenya's Economic Battlefield

The war's economic fallout continues to be felt acutely in Nairobi and beyond. According to a United Nations Development Programme analysis, the conflict has triggered significant price hikes for essential goods. Key impacts include:

• Fuel and Fertilizer: Global price surges have directly increased costs for transport and agriculture in Kenya, impacting everything from matatu fares to crop yields.
• Wheat Imports: Kenya imports a significant portion of its wheat from the Russia-Ukraine region. Disruptions have led to higher prices for bread and other staple foods, which account for a large share of the average family's food basket.
• Economic Growth: The increased cost of living and doing business has hampered Kenya's post-COVID economic recovery, making it harder to alleviate poverty and achieve development goals.

A Diplomatic Tightrope

The diplomatic push is being led by U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, who is expected in Moscow for further talks. However, Witkoff's role has been scrutinized following a leaked phone call suggesting he was advising a Kremlin aide on how to pitch the peace plan to the White House. Despite the controversy, Putin dismissed accusations of bias as "nonsense."

As negotiators prepare for another round of talks, the fundamental disagreement over territory remains the biggest obstacle. While the White House expresses optimism, analysts warn that without a significant shift in Moscow's position, a lasting peace remains elusive, leaving countries like Kenya to navigate the economic consequences of a distant war.