Russian President Vladimir Putin is meeting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi for a two-day summit, a powerful symbol of their enduring relationship in a world upended by geopolitical conflict and shifting alliances. The talks, which began Thursday, aim to deepen defence and trade ties as both nations navigate a turbulent global landscape marked by Western sanctions on Moscow and a volatile US trade policy under President Donald Trump.

For Kenyans, this meeting thousands of kilometres away is not a distant affair. It directly impacts the cost of living and the nation's economic future. The discussions in Delhi are a critical indicator of how two of the world's major powers are re-aligning, creating ripples that affect everything from the price of bread to Kenya's diplomatic standing.

A World Remade by Conflict

When the two leaders last met four years ago, the global order was vastly different. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine turned Putin into a global pariah in the eyes of the West, severely restricting his international travel. This visit to India is one of his most significant diplomatic engagements since, signalling that Moscow believes it is breaking through its political isolation.

The war in Ukraine has had severe consequences for Kenya's economy. Disruptions in the global supply chain for grain, fertilizer, and fuel—commodities where Russia and Ukraine are major exporters—have led to sharp price increases locally. These shocks have directly contributed to the rising cost of food and transport, squeezing household budgets across the country.

The View from Nairobi

Kenya's relationship with both nations places it in a delicate balancing act. Initially, Kenya's envoy to the UN, Martin Kimani, strongly condemned Russia's invasion, invoking Africa's own colonial history as a reason to respect Ukraine's borders. However, Nairobi's stance has since shifted towards a more neutral, non-aligned position, reflecting a pragmatic approach to protect its economic interests.

This pragmatism is rooted in economic reality:

• Dependence on Russia: Kenya is a significant importer of Russian goods, particularly wheat and fertilizer. In 2021, 67% of Kenya's wheat came from Russia. The war-induced spike in fertilizer prices forced the Kenyan government to introduce a subsidy program to protect farmers and food security.
• Strong Ties with India: India is one of Kenya's largest trading partners and the second-largest investor in the country. Bilateral trade stood at $3.4 billion (approx. KES 442 billion) in 2022-23. Kenya imports critical goods from India, including pharmaceuticals, petroleum products, machinery, and vehicles.

Forging a New Economic Bloc

The Delhi summit is expected to result in around ten intergovernmental agreements and over fifteen commercial memoranda, with a focus on boosting bilateral trade to $100 billion (approx. KES 13 trillion) by 2030. For Russia, expanding trade with India is a crucial way to counter Western sanctions. For India, it is an opportunity to secure reliable energy and defence supplies while navigating punishing import tariffs from the Trump administration.

This deepening partnership, largely independent of the US dollar and Western financial systems, signals the strengthening of alternative economic blocs like BRICS, of which both nations are founding members. Analysts note that for many African nations, Russia is seen as a counterbalance to a global system dominated by Western powers.

As Putin and Modi cement their "special and privileged strategic partnership," the key takeaway for Kenya is the acceleration of a multipolar world. This new reality presents both challenges and opportunities, forcing Nairobi to skillfully navigate its foreign policy to ensure the flow of essential goods and secure its economic future in a rapidly changing global order.