Global pharmaceutical giant Pfizer is bracing for a challenging 2026, signaling to investors that the record-breaking revenues from its COVID-19 products are officially a thing of the past. The company's shares fell by as much as 5% after the forecast was released.

This is the new reality for the drugmaker: a future less reliant on pandemic windfalls and more dependent on a strategic pivot to combat looming patent expirations. Pfizer projects its 2026 revenue will be between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion (approx. KES 7.6 trillion to 8 trillion), roughly the same as 2025's expected $62 billion. The slowdown is attributed to a double blow: a $1.5 billion (approx. KES 193 billion) drop in COVID-19 product sales and an equal $1.5 billion hit from key drugs losing patent protection.

For Kenyans, this global financial shift has a unique and immediate relevance. While Pfizer tightens its spending internationally, its engagement in Kenya is deepening. Earlier this year, the Ministry of Health launched the 'Accord for a Healthier World' in partnership with Pfizer. This landmark program allows the Kenya Medical Supplies Agency (KEMSA) to procure Pfizer's entire portfolio of medicines and vaccines on a not-for-profit basis, a significant move aimed at boosting Universal Health Coverage.

Navigating the Post-Pandemic Market

The financial pressure on Pfizer is undeniable. The company is facing what analysts call a "patent cliff." Several blockbuster drugs are set to lose their market exclusivity, opening the door to cheaper generic competition. Key products facing this challenge include:

• Prevnar 13: A pneumococcal vaccine whose patent expires in 2026.
• Xeljanz: An immunology drug also facing generic competition in 2026.
• Eliquis, Ibrance, and Xtandi: Top-selling treatments for blood clots and cancer, with patents expiring in the years following 2026.

To counter these losses, which are expected to remove billions of dollars from its revenue stream, Pfizer is making aggressive moves into new, high-growth areas. The company is betting heavily on two key fields: weight-loss drugs and cancer treatments.

A New Bet on Oncology and Obesity

Pfizer has made its ambitions clear with major acquisitions. It recently completed a deal for Metsera, a biotech firm specializing in obesity drugs, for an initial enterprise value of $4.9 billion (approx. KES 631 billion). This positions Pfizer to compete in a rapidly expanding market. The company also spent $43 billion (approx. KES 5.5 trillion) to acquire Seagen, a leader in antibody-drug conjugates for cancer therapy, with the goal of having at least eight blockbuster oncology drugs by 2030.

This strategic shift directly impacts the medicines that will become available globally and, through programs like the Accord, in Kenya. The partnership with the Ministry of Health is designed to shorten the lag time for new, innovative treatments for cancer and other non-communicable diseases to reach Kenyan patients. It's a move that aligns with Pfizer's long-term presence in the region, where it has operated from its Nairobi headquarters for over 60 years.

While Pfizer's global forecast may appear tepid, its strategy on the ground in Kenya suggests a deeper, more collaborative future. As the company navigates its financial transition, its not-for-profit commitments could provide a critical lifeline for a local healthcare system still grappling with challenges in funding and access.