After nearly four years of grinding warfare that has reshaped global alliances and disrupted economies from Kyiv to Nairobi, the guns in Ukraine are poised to fall silent—yet a final peace deal hangs by a thread over what President Donald Trump characterizes as "very thorny" obstacles.

At stake is not merely the drawing of borders in Eastern Europe, but the stabilization of international markets that dictate the cost of living globally. While Washington’s ambitious 20-point plan has brought negotiators to the "final stage," the deadlock over key industrial territories and the safety of Europe's largest nuclear plant threatens to unravel the progress entirely.

The Territorial Deadlock

The core of the dispute lies in the industrial Donbas region. Russian President Vladimir Putin has maintained a maximalist stance, demanding total control over the area. While Russian forces currently occupy the majority of the Luhansk region, they hold approximately 75% of the Donetsk region.

Putin is insisting on the surrender of the remaining territory, specifically the "fortress belt" cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. For Ukraine, handing over these cities is not just a strategic loss, but a humanitarian crisis.

"We can't just withdraw, it's out of our law," President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized regarding the demand. "It's not only the law. People live there, 300,000 people... We can't lose those people."

A Fragile Compromise

In an attempt to break the impasse, Kyiv has tabled a counter-proposal. Zelensky suggested a mutual pullback to create a demilitarized or "free economic zone," which would be secured by Ukrainian law enforcement and eventually monitored by international forces. This proposal aims to freeze the conflict without formally ceding sovereignty.

However, analysts remain skeptical that the Kremlin will accept such terms. Russian generals have reported rapid territorial gains to Putin, potentially hardening his resolve to seize the land by force rather than diplomacy.

• The 20-Point Plan: A US-brokered framework addressing borders, security guarantees, and sanctions.
• The Nuclear Factor: The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant remains under Russian occupation, a critical safety concern for the entire continent.
• Next Steps: Zelensky is scheduled to meet European leaders in France on January 6 to rally support for his compromise.

As the January 6 summit approaches, the world watches with bated breath. For Kenyans, a successful deal could signal a long-awaited normalization in global fuel and grain supply chains; a collapse in talks, however, could prolong the economic volatility that has defined the last four years.