The aisles of Shoppers Supermarket at Mlimani City in Dar es Salaam were not filled with the usual festive cheer of December on Monday. Instead, they were choked with grim-faced residents pushing carts laden with water, maize flour, and cooking gas. Outside, the humid air hung heavy with a tension that has been building for weeks. For Tanzanians, this is not just another Independence Day eve; it is the calm before a potential storm, with nationwide protests dubbed 'D9' scheduled for Tuesday to challenge the disputed October election results.

This rush for essentials marks a critical escalation in the standoff between President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s government and an opposition movement that claims over 1,000 citizens were killed in post-election violence. For Kenya, the stakes are rising by the hour. The unrest next door threatens not just regional trade corridors but the safety of Kenyans living in Tanzania, who have found themselves in the crosshairs of increasingly xenophobic political rhetoric.

A City on Edge

Reports from the ground paint a picture of a population preparing for a siege. The Daily Nation confirmed that major outlets in Dar es Salaam saw foot traffic spike significantly over the weekend and into Monday morning. "We are buying because we don't know if shops will open tomorrow or if we will even be able to leave our homes," one shopper told local media, declining to be named for fear of reprisal.

The panic is driven by a severe security crackdown. The Tanzania Police Force, led by Spokesperson David Misime, has declared the planned Tuesday demonstrations "illegal," warning that security agencies are ready to crush any attempt to march. This is not an idle threat; in the lead-up to December 9, authorities have:

• Arrested over 100 activists: In Mwanza alone, 116 people were detained over the weekend for allegedly organizing the protests.
• Deployed the military: Armed patrols have become visible in key districts of Dar es Salaam and Arusha.
• Issued digital warnings: The Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority (TCRA) has sent mass SMS blasts warning citizens against joining "online groups that incite violence."

The Kenyan Connection

The ripples of this instability are already washing over the border. The Kenyan High Commission in Tanzania has issued a security alert, urging Kenyans to exercise extreme caution, avoid large gatherings, and—crucially—stock up on essential supplies. This advisory mirrors warnings from the U.S. Embassy, which has flagged the potential for internet blackouts and border closures.

More troubling for diplomatic relations is the narrative emerging from Dodoma. In an attempt to deflect from the internal crisis, President Samia has publicly blamed "foreign interference" for the unrest, with specific, thinly veiled accusations directed at Kenyans. Article 19, a human rights organization, noted that this rhetoric risks inciting xenophobia, putting Kenyan traders and expatriates at risk of harassment or arbitrary arrest.

'We Are Prepared'

The catalyst for Tuesday's showdown is the October 29 general election, where President Samia was declared the winner with a staggering 98% of the vote—a figure the opposition Chadema party calls fraudulent. Chadema leaders, many of whom have been detained or driven into hiding, are using the December 9 Independence Day holiday to reclaim what they call "stolen freedom."

President Samia’s response has been uncompromising. Speaking to elders in Dar es Salaam earlier this week, she dismissed the protests as a foreign plot. "I want to tell them, whenever they come, we are prepared," she warned. As Tuesday dawns, the region watches with bated breath, hoping that the stocking up on food and water remains a precaution, not a survival necessity.