NAIROBI, KENYA – Former Nominated Senator Gloria Orwoba has asserted that President William Ruto will face a formidable challenge securing a second term in the 2027 General Election without the political support of the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga. Speaking on Tuesday, November 4, 2025, during an appearance on TV47's 'Morning Café' show, Orwoba claimed Odinga's recent death was not only a national loss but also a significant political blow to the President. “Ruto was sad because he knows that without Raila, he's in trouble in the 2027 elections,” Orwoba stated.

Orwoba, a former member of President Ruto's own United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party, accused the President of hypocrisy, alleging he was at the forefront of the state funeral for a man he had fiercely criticized for years. “The biggest abuser of Raila is Ruto, yet he was the one at the forefront of conducting his state funeral,” she remarked. Her comments have ignited fresh debate on the intricate and evolving relationship between the two political titans and its implications for the country's future.

A vocal and often controversial figure, Gloria Orwoba was nominated to the Senate by the UDA party in 2022 to represent women's interests. An advocate for women's rights, she gained national attention for her campaign against period poverty. However, her relationship with the ruling party soured, leading to her expulsion in May 2025, a decision she has since contested. Her critique, coming from a former insider of the President's camp, carries significant weight in ongoing political analyses.

A Strategic Alliance

The unlikely partnership between President Ruto and Mr. Odinga, fierce competitors in the 2022 presidential election, began solidifying in early 2024. The cornerstone of this political rapprochement was President Ruto's robust support for Odinga's bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship. The President personally championed the campaign, framing his support as a move to foster national unity and ensure an inclusive government. On August 27, 2024, Ruto officially endorsed Odinga at a State House event attended by regional leaders, calling him a "visionary Pan-African" and a "towering statesman."

This strategic backing was widely interpreted by political analysts as a calculated move by President Ruto to manage the 2027 succession politics. By supporting Odinga's continental ambition, the President aimed to remove his most formidable domestic rival from the local political scene, potentially securing a smoother path to re-election. Despite a vigorous, state-backed campaign, Odinga's bid for the AUC chair was unsuccessful in the February 2025 elections.

Post-AUC Political Landscape

Following the loss in Addis Ababa, the two leaders signaled their intention to continue their cooperation. Reports emerged of a tentative working arrangement between the ruling Kenya Kwanza coalition and Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), with discussions about sharing executive positions. This cooperation culminated in a formal 10-point Memorandum of Understanding signed on March 7, 2025, solidifying a "broad-based government." This alliance provided President Ruto with the necessary legislative support to impeach his then-deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, in October 2024.

In the months leading up to his death on October 15, 2025, Odinga and Ruto held several meetings, reportedly focusing on a shared long-term vision for Kenya's development, including infrastructure and energy projects. President Ruto himself eulogized Odinga as his only "worthy competitor" and a key partner in his development agenda.

Implications for 2027

Orwoba's statement underscores the prevailing view among many analysts that President Ruto's political calculus for 2027 was heavily dependent on his alliance with Odinga. The partnership was seen as a strategy for the President to make inroads into Odinga's traditional strongholds, particularly in Nyanza and Western Kenya, to compensate for potential erosion of support in other regions like Mount Kenya. With Odinga's passing, a political vacuum has emerged in his strongholds. Orwoba noted that President Ruto is now searching for new leaders with genuine grassroots influence in Luo Nyanza, suggesting that few can command the loyalty that Odinga did.

The political landscape remains fluid, with new alliances forming. The Gachagua-Kalonzo Musyoka axis is emerging as a potential challenger to the President. Meanwhile, professionals have begun speculating on a Ruto-Gladys Wanga (Homa Bay Governor) ticket to consolidate the UDA-ODM pact. As the nation mourns a political icon, the aftershocks of his departure are redrawing the battle lines for the 2027 election, leaving President Ruto to navigate a more complex and unpredictable political terrain.