NAIROBI – For a real-time reading of Wall Street's feverish mood on the artificial intelligence gold rush, market watchers say you need only look at the daily swings of tech giant Oracle. The company's stock has become a proxy for the high hopes and deep anxieties surrounding the world's biggest technology bets.

This matters because the global AI race, fueled by trillions of shillings in investment, directly influences the technology landscape in Kenya. From data centre investments to the stability of platforms essential for local creators and businesses, the financial health of a company like Oracle sends ripples all the way to Nairobi's Silicon Savannah.

This week, Oracle's shares slumped more than five percent after a report highlighted financing troubles for one of its massive AI data centre projects. They quickly recovered the following day, buoyed by stellar financial results from AI chipmaker Micron Technology, which posted record revenues of $13.6 billion (approx. KES 1.75 trillion) for its first fiscal quarter.

The volatility points to a deeper concern analysts are calling "circular financing." Art Hogan of B. Riley Wealth Management noted that Oracle is a "poster child" for these arrangements, where companies become deeply co-dependent. In one such deal, AI powerhouse OpenAI has reportedly committed to paying Oracle up to $300 billion (approx. KES 38.7 trillion) over five years for cloud computing services, a move that raises questions about the true, independent value of these massive contracts.

A New Role in the TikTok Saga

As if navigating the AI boom wasn't enough, Oracle simultaneously cemented its role at the heart of another global tech drama: the future of TikTok. In a deal announced Thursday, Oracle will become a key partner in a new US joint venture designed to keep the wildly popular video app operating in the United States and avert a threatened ban over its Chinese ownership.

TikTok's CEO, Shou Chew, confirmed in an internal memo that Oracle, alongside investment firms Silver Lake and Abu Dhabi-based MGX, have signed binding agreements. The new entity, TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC, will be majority-owned by American investors and will be responsible for:

• Protecting all US user data, which will be stored on Oracle's servers in the United States.
• Ensuring the security of TikTok's powerful recommendation algorithm.
• Overseeing content moderation and software assurance for American users.

The agreement, set to close on January 22, 2026, is a direct response to a 2024 US law that required TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, to sell its US operations or face a complete ban. For millions of Kenyan creators and users, the deal signals a measure of stability for a platform that has become a vital tool for communication, commerce, and culture.

Oracle's dual position—as a central player in both the financing of the AI revolution and the geopolitical battle for data security—makes its future performance a critical indicator for the entire tech sector. Its success or failure will undoubtedly shape the digital landscape for years to come.