A high-stakes gamble by the world's most powerful oil producers is sending ripples from Riyadh to the streets of Nairobi, influencing the price of everything from a matatu ride to a loaf of bread.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), in a dramatic policy shift this year, have been flooding the global market with crude oil. This isn't about charity; it's a calculated war for market dominance against rising competition from the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. For Kenyans, this global power play has a direct and immediate impact on the monthly fuel price announcement from the Energy & Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA).

Since April 2025, eight key OPEC+ members, including giants Saudi Arabia and Russia, have collectively boosted production by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day. This strategy is designed to create a supply glut, pushing down global crude prices to levels that make it unprofitable for higher-cost producers, particularly in the U.S. shale fields, to operate. Analysts note that many American shale operators need oil prices around $65 (approx. KES 8,450) per barrel to be profitable, a threshold OPEC+ seems keen to test.

How a Global Strategy Hits Home

The glut has successfully weighed on international benchmarks. Brent crude, the global standard, was trading at $63.19 (approx. KES 8,215) a barrel on Friday, down significantly over the year. This global price is the single biggest factor in the formula EPRA uses to calculate local pump prices. While a weaker shilling can offset some gains from lower oil prices, the sheer volume of the OPEC+ production increase has been a key factor in stabilizing costs for Kenyan consumers.

In its latest review on November 14, EPRA announced that fuel prices would remain unchanged for the third consecutive month, providing a measure of relief to households and businesses. This means Nairobi motorists will continue to pay KES 184.52 for a litre of Super Petrol and KES 171.47 for Diesel until mid-December.

The stability at the pump has far-reaching consequences for the Kenyan economy:

• Transport Costs: It keeps fares for matatus and boda-bodas in check, directly affecting the daily budget of millions of commuters.
• Food Prices: Lower diesel costs reduce the expense of transporting agricultural goods from farms to markets, helping to manage food inflation.
• Household Energy: The price of kerosene, a vital fuel for cooking and lighting in many homes, also remains stable at KES 154.78 in Nairobi.

An Uncertain Road Ahead

While the current strategy offers short-term relief for oil-importing nations like Kenya, it is a painful one for the producers themselves, who are sacrificing higher profits for market share. OPEC+ ministers are scheduled to hold an online meeting on Sunday to discuss their output strategy, but analysts widely expect them to maintain their current course, betting that they can outlast their competitors.

The decision from that meeting will be watched closely in Kenya. Any signal of a change in policy—whether a cutback to boost prices or a further increase in production—will inevitably be felt at the pump in the coming months, shaping the economic reality for everyone. For now, Kenyans benefit from a global oil war, but the future of fuel prices remains as unpredictable as the geopolitical chess game being played by the world's energy titans.