Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga has dropped a political bombshell, declaring that the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is fully prepared to go it alone in the 2027 general elections if ongoing bipartisan talks with the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) hit a dead end.

This pronouncement from the Odinga family patriarch is not just a threat; it is a strategic recalibration of the opposition’s posture. It signals deep-seated skepticism about the current truce and prepares the ground for a high-stakes divorce that could reshape the country’s political alliances long before the ballot boxes open. Oburu’s words carry the weight of the party’s historical memory, reminding allies and foes alike that ODM is a formidable machine capable of standing on its own two feet.

The Coalition Fracture

The Senator’s remarks come amidst growing unease within the opposition ranks. There is a palpable fear that the current cooperation with the government might dilute ODM’s identity as the champion of the masses. Oburu was categorical that while dialogue is preferred, it cannot come at the cost of the party’s soul or its electoral prospects.

"We are not desperate," Oburu was quoted as saying, emphasizing that the party has the structures, the support base, and the resilience to mount a solo presidential campaign. This stance is a direct challenge to those within the party advocating for a softer approach towards the ruling coalition.

• The One-Term Dilemma: The party is reportedly split on whether to support a one-term or two-term agenda for the current presidency, with hardliners pushing for a challenge in 2027.
• Internal Purges: The recent ouster of rebellious officials like Edwin Sifuna from key positions highlights the internal discipline being enforced to prepare the vessel for rough waters ahead.
• Grassroots Mobilization: Oburu indicated that the party would soon embark on a nationwide revitalization tour to energize its base and test its solo strength.

A Game of Chicken

Political analysts view this move as a high-stakes game of chicken. By threatening to walk away, ODM is trying to increase its leverage in the ongoing negotiations. However, the risk is real. A fractured opposition in 2027 would almost certainly hand a second term to the incumbent on a silver platter.

Yet, for the party faithful, Oburu’s defiance is a breath of fresh air. It reassures the base that the "Orange" movement has not been swallowed by the "Yellow" wave. The road to 2027 is long, but the battle lines are already being drawn in the sand.

As the political chessboard shifts, Oburu Oginga has made one thing clear: ODM is not a passenger in Kenya’s politics; it is a driver, and it is ready to take the wheel alone if necessary.