The Orange Democratic Movement is bleeding. Without the "Enigma" to hold it together, the party of Raila Odinga is descending into a chaotic war of egos, warns analyst Javas Bigambo.

Raila Odinga was the glue. He was the "Agwambo," the mystery, the undeniable force of nature that kept the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) united for two decades. But four months after his demise, the cracks are not just showing; they are widening into canyons. Lawyer and political analyst Javas Bigambo has penned a brutal autopsy of the party, warning that its future is "twisted and ostensibly bleak."

The War of Egos

"Undeniably, the late Raila Odinga was to ODM what water is to fish," Bigambo writes. Now, the fish are gasping for air. The sibling rivalry is vicious. Babu Owino claims leadership by popularity ("Ask anyone in Luo Nyanza"), while the old guard clings to the structures. It is a classic power vacuum. Ambition, once checked by reverence for "Baba," is now unchecked and toxic.

• The Diagnosis: A lack of ideology. ODM was a cult of personality. Without the personality, what is left?
• The Prognosis: "Accidental self-destruction." If the egos are not reined in, the Orange party will rot from the inside.

Can the Orange Survive?

Bigambo argues that ODM will survive, but it won't be the same giant. It will be a fragmented, bickering entity. For the millions of supporters who looked to Chungwa House for hope, this is a bitter pill. The party needs a new captain, but right now, everyone wants to steer the ship, and they are steering it straight into an iceberg.