The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is facing an existential fracture that threatens to tear the party apart from within. A powerful faction, now dubbed the "conformist wing" and led by none other than Oburu Oginga, is aggressively pushing for a formal pre-election pact with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), a move driven not by strategy, but by sheer, unadulterated panic.

This development marks a dramatic departure from the party's revolutionary roots, signaling a desperate scramble for survival among its elite. The urgency is palpable, with insiders describing the mood as "panic management" rather than political maneuvering. For the first time in decades, the seasoned politicians who have ridden on the coattails of Raila Odinga's enigma are staring into the abyss of electoral irrelevance, and they are terrified.

"Calculators in Hand"

Sources within the party reveal a group operating with "fear in their stomachs and calculators in their hands." These are not the ideological firebrands of the past; they are career politicians who have never won an election on their own merit. They are seeking early, written, and enforceable guarantees from the State House before the 2027 General Election cycle begins in earnest.

The conformists are demanding certainty in an uncertain game. They want to know their landing spots before a single vote is cast. This demand for a "soft landing" betrays a lack of confidence in their own grassroots support. By seeking to outsource their political survival to the State, they are effectively admitting that without the direct patronage of the ruling coalition, their political careers are dead in the water.

• The "Broad-Based" Trap: The push is strongest among those who are currently benefiting from the "broad-based" government arrangement. They fear that once the parliamentary term ends, their utility to the President will expire, leaving them exposed to a hostile electorate.
• Grassroots Disconnect: While the elite negotiate in Nairobi boardrooms, the ODM base in Nyanza and Western Kenya remains largely skeptical of any deal with UDA, creating a dangerous rift between the leaders and the led.
• The Oburu Factor: As the family patriarch and a key figure in the negotiations, Oburu Oginga’s involvement signals that this is not just a rogue faction, but a move with deep, perhaps dynastic, implications.

A Betrayal of the Base?

The implications of this potential pact are seismic. For decades, ODM has styled itself as the champion of the downtrodden, the voice of the opposition, and the check on government excess. A formal deal with UDA would essentially dissolve the official opposition, creating a monolithic political entity reminiscent of the KANU days.

Critics argue that this "outsourcing of survival" is the ultimate betrayal of the voters who have braved teargas and bullets for the party. If the "conformist wing" succeeds, they will have secured their own futures at the cost of the party's soul. As the 2027 clock ticks, the desperation is only set to grow, and with it, the likelihood of a deal that could reshape the Kenyan political landscape forever.