NAIROBI, KENYA – A simmering power struggle within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has erupted into public view, threatening the stability of Kenya's largest opposition party. The conflict escalated over the weekend during the party's 20th-anniversary celebrations in Mombasa, when East African Legislative Assembly (EALA) MP Winnie Odinga, daughter of the late party patriarch Raila Odinga, openly questioned the leadership capabilities of her uncle, Dr. Oburu Oginga.

Speaking on Saturday, November 15, 2025, exactly one month after her father's passing, Ms. Odinga challenged whether the current leadership, helmed by Dr. Oginga, is equipped to manage the party's complex relationship with President William Ruto's government. "That relationship is complicated," she stated, adding, "Those that are taking it upon themselves to manage it now, are they capable?" She called for a National Delegates Convention (NDC) to allow party members to decide on its future leadership and strategic direction.

The public challenge lays bare the deep fissures within ODM as it navigates a post-Raila era. Dr. Oginga was appointed Acting Party Leader by the National Executive Committee (NEC) on October 16, 2025, following his brother's death, a move seen by party insiders as an attempt to ensure stability during the transition. However, Ms. Odinga's remarks suggest a growing generational and ideological rift between the party's old guard and a younger faction demanding a more assertive and independent opposition stance.

Succession Battle and Party Direction

The core of the dispute revolves around two interconnected issues: the legitimate succession of Raila Odinga and the party's strategic alignment ahead of the 2027 General Election. One faction within the party appears content to continue the "broad-based government" cooperation pact initiated by Raila Odinga and President Ruto. Leaders in this camp, including several governors, argue it ensures regional development and political stability.

Conversely, a vocal group championed by figures like Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna and Ms. Odinga fears this cooperation is a precursor to ODM being co-opted by the ruling administration, thereby weakening its role as a watchdog. Ms. Odinga sensationally alleged on Friday, November 14, that some unnamed leaders were plotting to "sell" the party, intensifying the mistrust.

In his response on Saturday, Dr. Oginga sought to de-escalate the public confrontation, stating he would discuss the matter privately with his niece. He defended his credentials, emphasizing his long-standing loyalty and proximity to his late brother. "I lived with Raila for 80 years. In all that he did and where he went, I was always there. And there is no single day I betrayed my brother," Dr. Oginga asserted, pledging to lead the party as Raila would have.

Implications for Kenya's Political Landscape

The internal turmoil within ODM carries significant implications for Kenyan politics. As the country's most established opposition force for two decades, a fractured or weakened ODM could fundamentally alter the 2027 electoral landscape, potentially leaving President Ruto with a less formidable challenge. Political analysts note that the party is at a critical juncture, and its ability to manage this leadership transition will determine its survival and relevance.

Ms. Odinga, who was elected to EALA in November 2022 for a five-year term, has been increasingly viewed as a potential political heir to her father. Her assertive stance and call for an NDC are seen as a direct bid to influence the party's future, challenging the dynastic succession that appeared to be taking shape. The outcome of this power struggle will not only define the leadership of ODM but also signal the future direction of opposition politics in Kenya.