A cryptic message delivered via a metaphor of a turtle has brought the simmering tensions within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) to a boiling point, exposing the delicate power struggle defining the party in the post-Raila era. Embakasi East Member of Parliament Babu Owino, known for his acerbic and often unpredictable political commentary, has responded to the Nairobi branch’s endorsement of Winnie Odinga for the position of Deputy Party Leader, signaling that the battle for the party’s soul is far from over.

The endorsement, championed by Makadara MP and Nairobi ODM branch chairperson George Aladwa, represents a pivotal moment for the party. Following the death of long-time leader Raila Odinga on October 15, 2025, the party has struggled to reconcile its historic identity with the pressures of institutional succession. With the organization’s leadership now firmly in the hands of Senator Oburu Oginga, the move to elevate the late leader’s daughter suggests an attempt to consolidate familial legacy, a strategy that is clearly meeting resistance from the party’s more radical, youth-aligned factions.

The Weight of the Turtle Analogy

In political discourse, metaphors often carry more weight than direct critiques, and Babu Owino’s choice of the turtle analogy is particularly evocative. By invoking the image of a creature that is simultaneously slow-moving and protected by a hard, impenetrable shell, Owino appears to be issuing a dual warning. On one hand, the turtle represents the steady, inevitable pace of political ambition on the other, it serves as a nod to the defensive posture required when entering the treacherous arena of high-level party politics.

Observers interpret this intervention not merely as a comment on Winnie Odinga’s candidacy, but as a broader critique of the ODM hierarchy’s direction. Owino, who has previously voiced his own aspirations for the top party seat, is signaling that the era of uncontested succession planning is over. The Embakasi East legislator is positioning himself as the voice of a younger generation that views the traditional gatekeeping mechanisms—such as regional branch endorsements—as outdated vestiges of an old political order that no longer reflects the demands of the modern Kenyan electorate.

A Party at a Strategic Crossroad

The internal conflict within ODM is not just about a single appointment it is about the structural future of one of Kenya’s most influential political machines. Since its inception in 2005, the party has been defined by the charismatic and singular leadership of Raila Odinga. His passing last year created a vacuum that many assumed would be filled by established party stalwarts. However, the current reality is a fractured coalition of interests, with clear fault lines between the conservative old guard and the reform-minded insurgents.

The current leadership structure, as it stands following the transition to Oburu Oginga, is increasingly viewed as fragile. The party’s existing deputy leaders represent a diverse array of regional interests, but their internal cohesion is reportedly low. The divide between those aligning with the new central leadership and those demanding a fundamental restructuring—including figures like Senator Edwin Sifuna and Babu Owino—suggests that the upcoming party elections and appointments could become flashpoints for broader instability.

• Current ODM Deputy Party Leader Roster:
• Governor Abdulswamad Shariff (Mombasa) – Aligned with current central leadership.
• Governor Simba Arati (Kisii) – Aligned with current central leadership.
• Senator Godfrey Osotsi (Vihiga) – Aligned with reformist/youth faction.
• Proposed Candidate: Winnie Odinga – Endorsed by Nairobi branch leadership.

The Mathematics of Nairobi Politics

The push to elevate Winnie Odinga is as much about logistics as it is about symbolism. George Aladwa’s argument for her inclusion is rooted in the absence of a high-level Nairobi representative within the party’s top decision-making organs. As the economic and political center of the country, Nairobi exerts disproportionate influence on national policy. By securing a high-ranking position for a representative from the capital, the local branch aims to reassert its relevance in the national power matrix.

However, this move is being contested on the grounds of meritocracy versus heredity. Analysts warn that if the party is perceived as prioritizing family name over institutional capacity, it risks alienating the urban youth vote, a demographic that has historically been the bedrock of ODM’s support in Nairobi. The tension is palpable in the 17 constituencies of the county, where grassroots supporters are now caught between allegiance to the Oginga legacy and the desire for a new, more transparent leadership style.

The Path Forward for the Orange Party

The stakes for the ODM extend well beyond the internal appointment of a deputy party leader. As the party prepares for the next national election cycle, it must demonstrate that it can function as a modern, democratic institution rather than a personality-driven entity. The ability to resolve the current impasse without fracturing the party membership will be the ultimate test of the leadership of Oburu Oginga.

As the debate intensifies, the question remains whether the party will choose to embrace the transformative change demanded by its younger legislators or retreat into the protective shell of its history. Whether the turtle analogy proves to be a warning of slow progress or a sign of impending, defensive change will be revealed in the coming months as the party convention approaches. The silence from the national secretariat on the specifics of this dispute leaves the public and the party faithful in a state of suspended anticipation.