ODM Shifts Anniversary Plans After Kisii Absences

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has postponed its main 20th-anniversary celebrations, initially slated for October 10-12 in Mombasa, to November 14-16, 2025. This decision, announced on Friday, October 3, 2025, by National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed, follows a consultative meeting with Party Leader Raila Odinga. The postponement allows for an expanded schedule of county-level engagements, a strategic pivot after a significant number of ODM Members of Parliament (MPs) in Kisii County skipped a regional anniversary event on September 26, 2025.

The Kisii event, held at Gusii Stadium, saw thousands of supporters attend, but all local ODM MPs, with the exception of Governor Simba Arati and nominated MP Irine Mayaka, were conspicuously absent. This boycott highlighted growing internal dissent and raised questions about the party's influence in a region traditionally considered an ODM stronghold. Many of the absent MPs have reportedly gravitated towards former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i, who is believed to be eyeing the presidency in 2027.

Context: Strengthening Grassroots Ahead of 2027

The expanded anniversary programme is widely interpreted as an effort by ODM to re-energise and consolidate its grassroots support base across the country in preparation for the 2027 General Election. The party aims to address internal rifts and shifting political alliances that have tested its dominance in some regions.

The revised schedule includes a football tournament on October 9-10, followed by county-level events in Kajiado (October 15), Turkana (October 26), Kilifi (November 2), and Nairobi (November 9). These activities will precede the grand celebrations in Mombasa. ODM was founded in 2005, emerging from the 'No' campaign during the constitutional referendum, symbolised by an orange.

Government Initiatives: NYOTA Programme and Drought Relief

In other national developments, the government is moving forward with the rollout of the National Youth Opportunities Towards Advancement (NYOTA) Project. President William Ruto has directed all Principal Secretaries to convene meetings with governors, MPs, and Members of County Assemblies (MCAs) by Monday, October 6, 2025, to sensitise leaders and youth about the programme.

The NYOTA Project, a five-year initiative funded by the World Bank, aims to empower 100,000 young people nationwide by providing Ksh50,000 grants for business ventures. This Ksh5 billion programme seeks to address unemployment, income insecurity, and foster a savings culture among Kenyan youth. Over 1.4 million applications have been received, with 180,000 applicants already shortlisted.

Separately, Cabinet Secretary for Public Service, Human Capital Development and Special Programmes, Geoffrey Ruku, flagged off relief food to drought-stricken Arid and Semi-Arid Land (ASAL) counties. This initial consignment, dispatched from Nairobi, targets Mandera and Turkana counties, which are among the hardest hit. The relief includes 6,600 bags of maize for Turkana, 7,200 bags of rice for Mandera, and 8,840 bags of beans to be shared between the two counties, expected to benefit approximately 204,600 people in Turkana and 287,700 in Mandera.

According to the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA), 2.15 million people across the ASAL belt urgently require food assistance. CS Ruku emphasised the government's commitment to long-term solutions, including investments in irrigation, water harvesting, and climate-resilient agriculture, to reduce dependency on aid.

Risks and Implications

The internal divisions within ODM, particularly the Kisii snub, pose an electoral risk for the party, potentially leading to a loss of vote share in a historically loyal region if disaffected MPs defect or form new alliances. This could also provide an advantage to rival parties ahead of the 2027 elections. For the NYOTA programme, successful implementation hinges on transparent and inclusive processes at the grassroots level, as stressed by President Ruto. The drought relief efforts, while critical for immediate needs, highlight the ongoing challenge of food insecurity in ASAL regions, necessitating sustained long-term interventions.

What to Watch

Observers will be keenly watching how ODM navigates its internal challenges and whether the expanded county engagements succeed in unifying its base. The effectiveness of the NYOTA programme's rollout and its impact on youth unemployment will also be a key area of focus. Additionally, the government's continued response to the drought crisis and the progress of its long-term resilience strategies in ASAL counties will remain critical.