A vocal Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) youth leader, Kasmuel McOure, has broken ranks with his party's traditional stance, asserting that President William Ruto is poised for a second-term victory. This declaration sends ripples through Kenya's political landscape, questioning opposition strategy ahead of 2027.

The core of this political tremor is McOure's argument for pragmatism over idealism. He insists that based on current political trends, the Kenya Kwanza government is better organised and has a clearer path to victory. "People are afraid of saying this, but we have to be open to the fact that... the side with more clarity of thought and that is more organised is the one that will clinch victory," McOure stated.

This is not an unconditional endorsement. Previously, McOure pledged to rally youth support for the President only if a 10-point agenda, developed during bipartisan talks, is fully implemented. This agenda is believed to cover national concerns like economic reforms, electoral justice, and youth empowerment.

A Calculated Political Gamble

McOure's position has evolved into a call for a formal, "sober, well-negotiated pre-election agreement" with President Ruto's UDA party. He argues this is the most mature path for ODM to secure its interests and remain a governing force, rather than expecting President Ruto to abandon the political vehicle that brought him to power. This move comes amidst a broader, intense debate within ODM on whether to collaborate with the government or prepare to field its own presidential candidate in 2027.

However, McOure's official standing has been contested. In November 2025, the ODM party clarified that Johnmark Ketorah is the legitimate Youth League President, dismissing a document that listed McOure in the role as misleading. Despite this, McOure remains an influential voice, having been appointed by the late Raila Odinga in 2024 to help mobilise the party's youth wing.

Weighing the Risks and Rewards

This dalliance with the ruling coalition is not without its critics. Political analysts have warned that a close association with the Ruto administration could damage ODM's credibility and alienate its core support base. Professor Gitile Naituli of Multimedia University cautioned that ODM risks being implicated in the government's perceived failings, suggesting President Ruto might "use and dump" his new allies before the election.

• The Pragmatist's View: McOure believes engaging with the likely winner is the best way to champion youth affairs.
• The Party's Dilemma: ODM is split, with some leaders like Alego Usonga MP Sam Atandi claiming the party is unprepared for a 2027 presidential bid and should back Ruto.
• The Analyst's Warning: Pundits argue that ODM's identity as a leading opposition force is at stake.

McOure's statements force a critical question for every Kenyan voter: is it more effective to challenge power from the outside or to negotiate a seat at the table? As the 2027 election cycle draws nearer, his provocative stance ensures the answer will be anything but simple.