ODM Sees By-Elections as Dress Rehearsal for 2027 Battleground

Nairobi, Kenya — September 24, 2025, 12:45 EAT.

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has framed the upcoming November by-elections as a strategic testing ground ahead of the 2027 general elections. The party aims to sharpen its campaign machinery, strengthen grassroots networks, and fine-tune its messaging in key battlegrounds. 

The Latest

• ODM National Chair and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga said the party is preparing to field candidates and campaign vigorously, viewing the by-elections as “a test run” for its 2027 roadmap. 

• Wanga stated, “Our goal … is to capture power. ODM is preparing to do so, either as a standalone party or within a coalition.” 

• She also emphasised that ODM is reinforcing its grassroots structures and refining messaging to stay relevant with voters. 

• Meanwhile, party leader Raila Odinga has urged restraint among party members regarding public speculation on 2027 plans, hinting the party will formally decide its path in due time. 

Context in Brief

• Kenya will hold mini-polls on November 27, 2025, for a number of vacant seats. These by-elections are being closely watched as indicators of shifting political alignments, voter sentiment, and the strength of coalitions. 

• The Standard Media described the by‐elections as a “rehearsal” for alliances in 2027, suggesting that how ODM and UDA, and their allies, perform and interact will prefigure future coalitions. 

• ODM is marking its 20th anniversary in 2025, which it intends to use as a moment of renewal and repositioning ahead of the next general election. 

Policy, Law & Process

• By-elections in Kenya follow the Elections Act, which mandates timelines for nomination, campaigning, and vote tabulation.

• ODM’s tactical moves—such as grassroots mobilisation, alignment or non-competition deals, candidate vetting and messaging—will need to conform to electoral regulations and party processes.

• The outcomes, especially in contested seats, may influence future funding allocations, party legitimacy, and the attractiveness of coalition deals.

Voices & Stakeholders

• Gladys Wanga (ODM Chair, Homa Bay Governor): Advocates a proactive party posture: win seats and test structures. 

• Raila Odinga (ODM Leader): Calls for discipline and unity, discouraging premature announcements. 

• Political observers / analysts: Many describe the by-elections as litmus tests for opposition strength, alliance cohesiveness, and popularity ahead of the more consequential 2027 elections. 

• Competing parties / allies: Some coalition partners may test boundaries. UDA and other allies might pursue own targets or challenge ODM in seats perceived as competitive. 

Evidence & Data Box

Risks, Implications & Scenarios

• Overreach / backlash: If ODM pushes too aggressively, it may alienate coalition partners or provoke internal dissent.

• Underperformance danger: Losing key seats in the by-elections could dent its momentum and undermine claims of readiness for 2027.

• Alliance recalibrations: Success or failures may reshape coalition deals; some parties might defect or renegotiate terms based on performance.

• Messaging refinement: The by-elections will test how effectively ODM’s economic or issue-based messages resonate versus identity politics.

What We Don’t Know Yet

• Which specific constituencies will be most contested and how ODM will allocate resources across them.

• The degree to which ODM will compete directly or negotiate non-competition with allies in some seats.

• How voters—in areas with shifting demographics or discontent—will respond to ODM’s strategies.

• Whether defections or internal party fights will surface before or during the by-election campaigns.

Timeline

• 2025-09-24: ODM publicly frames by-elections as strategic test run.

• 2025-11-27: Scheduled date for by-elections.

• 2027 (General Election): The true battleground where lessons from by-elections will be applied.

What to Watch

• Announcement of ODM candidates and allocation of party resources per constituency.

• Any alliances or coalitions formed (or broken) ahead of the by-polls.

• Voter sentiment shifts, turnout, and unexpected results—especially in closely contested seats.

• How ODM leaders respond to setbacks or wins, and whether they adjust tactics for the bigger 2027 fight.