A simmering succession battle within Kenya's powerful Odinga political dynasty has erupted into public view, threatening the unity of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), the country's largest opposition party. The conflict broke into the open during the party's 20th-anniversary celebrations in Mombasa, held between Friday, 14th November, and Sunday, 16th November 2025. At the event, Winnie Odinga, the youngest daughter of the late political titan Raila Odinga, publicly questioned the leadership capabilities of her uncle, Dr. Oburu Oginga, who was formally confirmed as the new party leader just days earlier.

The confrontation, which has sent shockwaves through Kenya's political landscape, centres on the future direction of ODM, particularly its complex relationship with President William Ruto's government. Addressing party delegates at the Mama Ngina Waterfront on Saturday, 15th November, Ms. Odinga, a Member of the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA), cast doubt on the current leadership's ability to navigate the intricate political arrangement her father had established.

“The broad-based relationship is complicated,” Ms. Odinga stated, according to multiple reports from the Daily Nation, The Standard, and Capital FM. “Those managing it now, are they capable? Because it's only one Baba Raila Odinga who could manage it.” She then called for a National Delegates Convention (NDC) to allow the party's grassroots members to decide on the leadership best suited to manage this critical relationship. “That's why we want an NDC to decide on the people they'd want to manage it,” she insisted, in a direct challenge to Dr. Oginga's new authority.

A New Chapter, A New Conflict

Dr. Oburu Oginga, a veteran politician and Siaya Senator, was formally endorsed as the new ODM party leader by the National Governing Council (NGC) on Thursday, 13th November 2025, in Mombasa. The move was intended to ensure a smooth transition and maintain stability within the party following the death of his younger brother, Raila Odinga, on 15th October 2025. However, Ms. Odinga's remarks, made just two days later, have shattered any illusion of a seamless handover.

In his public response, Dr. Oginga sought to de-escalate the tension, adopting a conciliatory tone. He referred to Ms. Odinga as his “child” and stated the matter would be resolved internally. “I want to tell Winnie that we will speak about that in private, at home,” Dr. Oginga told the crowd, as reported by Capital FM and People Daily. He also reassured party loyalists of his unwavering commitment to his brother's legacy, stating, “I have walked with Raila for over 80 years and I have never betrayed him… The seat that I have been given — I will take the mantle from where my brother left, to achieve his vision and goal.”

This public disagreement marks a departure from the historical dynamic within the family. For decades, Dr. Oginga was a loyal confidant and strategist for his more charismatic younger brother, often taking a background role. The current friction is not a continuation of a rivalry between the brothers but rather a new fissure between their respective branches of the family over the control and ideological direction of the political empire Raila Odinga built.

Implications for ODM and Kenyan Politics

The public spat has exposed the deep-seated anxieties within ODM as it navigates a post-Raila era. The party is currently divided between two main factions. One camp, seemingly represented by Dr. Oginga and other senior leaders, advocates for continuing the cooperation with President Ruto's government. Another faction, which appears to include Ms. Odinga and younger party members, is wary of this alliance, fearing it could dilute ODM's identity as an opposition force and weaken its position ahead of the 2027 general election.

Political analysts warn that this internal power struggle could have significant consequences for Kenya and the East Africa region. The unity of the Luo-Nyanza voting bloc, which has been the bedrock of the Odingas' political influence for over six decades, is now under strain. A fractured ODM could lead to a realignment of political forces in Nyanza, potentially creating an opening for President Ruto to make inroads into a region that has historically been staunchly oppositional.

Ms. Odinga, who has cultivated a reputation for being outspoken and has been actively involved in her father's political operations, is seen by some as a potential heir to his legacy. Her challenge to Dr. Oginga's leadership is a clear signal of her own political ambitions and her intent to shape the party's future. The coming months will be critical in determining whether Dr. Oburu Oginga can consolidate his leadership and unify the party, or if the family feud will lead to a permanent schism within one of Kenya's most enduring political movements. The outcome of the demanded National Delegates Convention, if it materializes, will be the ultimate test of where the party's loyalty lies.