Dr. Oburu Oginga's tenure as the new leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is off to a turbulent start, as he inherits a party grappling with deep-seated divisions following the death of its iconic founder, Raila Odinga, on Wednesday, 15th October 2025. Formally endorsed by the party's National Governing Council (NGC) on Thursday, 13th November 2025, Dr. Oginga now faces the monumental task of uniting a party that has splintered into at least three distinct camps, each with a conflicting vision for its relationship with President William Ruto and the Kenya Kwanza administration.

The leadership transition occurs at a critical juncture for ODM, which just marked its 20th anniversary. The celebrations in Mombasa, intended to be a show of unity and a tribute to Raila Odinga's legacy, instead laid bare the simmering tensions that now define the party's post-Raila era.

The Pro-Government Faction

One dominant faction advocates for the continuation and deepening of the cooperation agreement with President Ruto's government, a policy initiated by Raila Odinga. This group, composed largely of party members currently serving in government, argues that ODM's interests are best served by remaining within the “broad-based government.” Key proponents include Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga. During the anniversary events, Joho was unequivocal, stating that Raila had placed the party in government and they would not return to street protests. This camp suggests that supporting President Ruto's 2027 re-election bid is a viable strategy, ensuring the party remains influential in national affairs.

The Opposition Hardliners

In stark opposition is a faction of party purists who are vehemently against any continued alliance with the Kenya Kwanza government. Led by prominent figures such as ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna and Siaya Governor James Orengo, this group insists that the party must reclaim its traditional role as the vanguard of the opposition. They argue that ODM was founded on principles of social democracy and holding power to account, and that a prolonged stay in government risks eroding its core identity. Sifuna and Orengo have publicly rejected the notion of supporting President Ruto in 2027, asserting that ODM has a surplus of qualified leaders to field its own presidential candidate. This camp fears that ODM will be “swallowed” by the ruling coalition, a concern Dr. Oginga himself has sought to allay.

The Pragmatists and a Divided Family

A third, more pragmatic group appears to be coalescing around the new party leader, Dr. Oginga, who is attempting a delicate balancing act. In his public statements, he has affirmed the party's cooperation with the government while insisting on its independence and strength. However, this middle ground is proving difficult to hold. The internal strife has even reached the Odinga family. Winnie Odinga, Raila's daughter and an EALA MP, has publicly questioned her uncle's leadership and the process of his appointment, calling for a National Delegates Convention (NDC) to elect a new leader. During the Mombasa celebrations, she made explosive claims of a plot by powerful insiders to “sell” the party, exposing deep mistrust within its highest echelons.

Implications for Kenya

The direction ODM takes under Dr. Oginga's leadership holds significant implications for Kenya's political landscape. As one of the country's largest and most influential political entities, its stability is crucial for a robust democracy. The internal power struggle will determine whether it remains a formidable independent force capable of challenging for power in 2027 or becomes a junior partner in the ruling coalition. Dr. Oginga's immediate challenge is to bridge these widening chasms, manage the conflicting ambitions of senior leaders, and articulate a coherent vision that honours his brother's complex legacy while navigating the new political realities. His ability to unify these factions will ultimately determine ODM's fate and shape the future of Kenyan politics.