Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate Monday evening, a summit shrouded in urgency as the Middle East balances precariously between a tenuous peace and total regional conflagration.

This marks Netanyahu’s fifth visit to the United States this year, a frequency that underscores the desperate need for coordination between Tel Aviv and Washington. For Kenyans watching from thousands of miles away, the outcome of this meeting carries significant weight: a collapse in negotiations could send global oil prices soaring again, tightening the squeeze on local households already grappling with the high cost of living.

A Fragile Truce Under Fire

The primary focus of the talks is the ceasefire in Gaza, which halted a devastating two-year war in October. While the initial phase of the president’s 20-point plan has seen relative success—with Israeli forces repositioning and Hamas releasing hostages—the path forward is fraught with peril.

Implementation of the second phase faces immense hurdles. Both sides have traded accusations of violations, creating a diplomatic deadlock. Hamas has established authority in populated areas of Gaza, while Israel maintains control over roughly 53% of the territory, restricting aid flow.

Gershon Baskin, co-head of the peace-building commission at the Alliance for Two States, emphasized the gravity of the moment. Having participated in back-channel negotiations, Baskin noted the timing is critical.

• Phase 1 Completion: Largely finished, though Hamas struggles to locate one remaining deceased hostage.
• Disarmament Standoff: Hamas has not explicitly committed to disarming.
• Territorial Control: Israel remains reluctant to withdraw fully from its new positions.

The Shadow of Regional War

Beyond Gaza, the specter of a wider conflict looms large. Intelligence reports suggest Israel may be preparing for new offensives against Hezbollah in Lebanon, potentially shattering a ceasefire that has held for over a year. Furthermore, tensions with Iran are at a boiling point, with Tel Aviv accusing Tehran of accelerating ballistic missile production.

For Kenya, a net importer of fuel, an escalation involving Iran—a key player in the Strait of Hormuz—could be catastrophic for the shilling. Any disruption to global shipping lanes would likely result in higher pump prices in Nairobi and increased costs for imported goods.

As the two leaders confer behind closed doors, the world waits—hoping that diplomacy prevails over the drumbeat of a war that has already cost too much.