Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in Florida on Monday evening for a high-stakes summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, as the shadow of a wider Middle East conflict threatens to shatter a fragile peace.

With the initial phase of the Gaza ceasefire barely holding, this meeting at Mar-a-Lago represents a critical juncture. It will determine whether the region pivots toward long-term reconstruction or plunges into a multi-front war involving Lebanon and Iran—a scenario that would inevitably send shockwaves through global energy markets and supply chains vital to Kenya’s economy.

The Stumbling Blocks of Phase Two

This marks Netanyahu’s fifth visit to the U.S. this year, underscoring the intensity of Washington's involvement. The primary focus remains the ceasefire in Gaza, which halted the devastating two-year war in October. While the initial terms—including the pullback of Israeli forces and the release of hostages—have been largely met, the path forward is fraught with diplomatic landmines.

Implementation of the second phase of President Trump’s ambitious "20-point plan" faces immense hurdles. Analysts point to a deepening lack of trust between the belligerents:

• Hamas Disarmament: The group has failed to explicitly commit to laying down arms and has reasserted authority in populated areas.
• Israeli Occupation: Tel Aviv appears reluctant to withdraw from the 53% of Gaza it currently controls.
• Aid Blockades: The free passage of humanitarian aid remains restricted, choking recovery efforts.

Gershon Baskin, co-head of the peace-building commission at the Alliance for Two States and a veteran back-channel negotiator, noted the gravity of the moment. "The timing of Netanyahu’s trip is very significant," Baskin emphasized. "Phase 1 is basically over, though there is one remaining Israeli deceased hostage which Hamas is having difficulty finding."

Beyond Gaza: The Regional Powder Keg

While Gaza dominates the headlines, the quiet conversations at Mar-a-Lago may concern a darker threat. Intelligence reports suggest growing fears that Israel is preparing new offensives against Hezbollah in Lebanon—potentially breaking a year-long ceasefire—or striking Iran directly.

Tel Aviv has accused Tehran of accelerating the manufacture of ballistic missiles in recent months. For Kenyans, an escalation involving Iran is not merely a distant geopolitical abstraction. A conflict in the Persian Gulf could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, spiking global oil prices and putting immediate pressure on the Kenya Shilling (KES) at the pump.

As the two leaders convene behind closed doors, the world watches with bated breath. For Nairobi, the outcome isn't just diplomatic theater; it is a barometer for the economic headwinds of 2026. If the "20-point plan" collapses, the cost will be measured not just in diplomatic failures, but in the rising cost of living across the globe.