As voting gets underway in Uganda, the anxiety is palpable—not just in Kampala, but in Nairobi. Kenya, which relies on Uganda as its biggest export market, is watching the polls with bated breath, fearing any instability could choke the Northern Corridor.

Intelligence sources say security has been beefed up at the Busia and Malaba borders to prevent any spillover of violence. A disrupted Uganda means stranded trucks, lost revenue, and a potential refugee influx. For President Ruto, a stable Museveni is a known quantity; a chaotic transition is a geopolitical nightmare.