Elon Musk’s Starlink has finally stopped the bleeding, clawing its way back to a record number of Kenyan subscribers after a bruising six-month decline. But for the tech billionaire accustomed to dominating headlines, the latest figures from the Communications Authority of Kenya (CA) offer a humbling reality check: while Starlink is walking again, Safaricom is sprinting.

The satellite internet provider, which entered the Kenyan market with promises of disrupting the status quo, has managed to regain the customers it lost during a period of crippling capacity strains. However, this recovery has not translated into market dominance. In fact, as the total number of Kenyans connecting to the internet surges, Starlink’s slice of the pie has effectively stagnated.

The Numbers Game: Growth vs. Share

Data covering the quarter ending September 2025 reveals a mixed report card for the US-based operator. Starlink added 2,045 new subscriptions, pushing its total user base to 19,470. This figure narrowly surpasses its previous peak of 19,146 recorded in December 2024.

Yet, in the high-stakes game of market share, standing still is equivalent to moving backward. Despite the subscriber rebound, Starlink’s market share remains stuck at 0.8 percent—a drop from the 1.1 percent high it enjoyed a year ago. The reason is simple: the competition isn't sleeping.

• Safaricom PLC: The undisputed heavyweight added a staggering 79,288 new fixed internet customers in the same period, cementing a 35.6 percent market share.
• Jamii Telecommunications (Faiba): Holds firm at second place with 20.4 percent.
• Wananchi Group (Zuku): Continues to trail at 11.8 percent.
• Poa Internet: Close behind at 11.6 percent.

Why the "Disruptor" Stumbled

Starlink’s trajectory in Kenya serves as a case study in the challenges of scaling hardware-heavy tech in a price-sensitive market. After a rapid initial uptake—claiming 0.5 percent of the market by September 2024—the service hit a wall. Users reported capacity strains, likely due to the satellite network becoming congested as more users hopped on without a corresponding increase in bandwidth allocation for the region.

"The rebound has not lifted its market share, which had slipped to 0.8 percent in June after six consecutive months of declining subscriber numbers," noted the Daily Nation report, citing CA statistics. This suggests that while the novelty and utility of satellite internet remain attractive for specific demographics—particularly in remote areas where fiber fears to tread—it is struggling to unseat fiber optics in urban centers where Safaricom and Faiba offer reliable, cheaper plug-and-play solutions.

The Kenyan Wallet Perspective

For the average Kenyan household, the choice often boils down to installation costs and monthly reliability. While Starlink has experimented with rental models and price cuts to lower the entry barrier—hardware kits often costing upwards of KES 40,000 without offers—Safaricom’s aggressive expansion of fiber infrastructure allows for low-to-zero connection fees.

The addition of nearly 80,000 users by Safaricom in a single quarter signals that the mass market still prefers the stability and local support of terrestrial fiber. Meanwhile, Starlink appears to be settling into a niche role: a vital lifeline for the unconnected rural user, rather than a mass-market killer of Nairobi’s fiber giants.

As the year closes, the narrative shifts from "Starlink vs. Safaricom" to a more nuanced coexistence. With reports surfacing in November 2025 of Safaricom potentially "making peace" with the satellite operator, the future may lie not in war, but in integration.