NAIROBI, Kenya – Remarks by Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni suggesting potential future conflicts over access to the Indian Ocean have drawn a measured response from Nairobi and placed a spotlight on the international legal frameworks that govern the rights of landlocked nations. While the comments sparked considerable public debate, Kenya's government has sought to de-escalate tensions, pointing to existing laws and agreements that ensure Uganda's access to the sea.

Speaking at a radio talk show at Mbale State Lodge on Sunday, November 9, 2025, President Museveni argued it was unfair for coastal nations to have exclusive ownership of the sea, calling the situation "madness." He likened landlocked countries to tenants on the upper floors of an apartment block who are entitled to use the common compound. "That ocean belongs to me. Because it is my ocean. I am entitled to that ocean. In the future, we're going to have wars," Museveni stated, highlighting the issue as critical for both economic and strategic defence purposes.

In response, Kenya's Ministry of Foreign Affairs adopted a diplomatic tone. During a media briefing in Nairobi on Wednesday, November 12, 2025, Principal Secretary Dr. Korir Sing’oei downplayed the remarks. "I will not comment much on what Museveni said with respect to our oceans, but I believe very much that he has a fairly great understanding with respect to the nature of our territory, and the nature of our rights with respect to our natural resources," Sing'oei stated. The ministry later added that the comments were likely metaphorical and not a literal challenge to bilateral relations.

International Law vs. Political Rhetoric

President Museveni's assertion of an "entitlement" to the ocean touches upon complex issues of state sovereignty and international law. The primary global treaty governing these matters is the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which both Kenya and Uganda have ratified.

Part X of UNCLOS is dedicated to the "Right of Access of Land-locked States to and from the Sea and Freedom of Transit." Article 125 explicitly grants landlocked states the right of access to and from the sea. To achieve this, it guarantees them "freedom of transit through the territory of transit States by all means of transport."

However, this right is not absolute and does not grant territorial sovereignty over a corridor to the sea. Instead, the convention stipulates that the specific "terms and modalities" for exercising this freedom of transit must be agreed upon through bilateral or regional agreements between the landlocked state and the transit state. UNCLOS also affirms the full sovereignty of the transit state over its territory, allowing it to take necessary measures to ensure its legitimate interests are not infringed upon.

Existing Frameworks for Access

Long-standing agreements already provide a robust framework for Uganda's sea access, primarily through Kenya's Port of Mombasa. The Northern Corridor Transit and Transport Agreement (NCTTA), originally signed in 1985 and revised in 2007, is a multilateral treaty specifically designed to facilitate transit trade for Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo through Mombasa. The agreement includes detailed protocols on maritime port facilities, customs controls, and transport infrastructure to ensure efficient movement of goods.

Furthermore, the East African Community (EAC), of which both nations are members, has established a Customs Union and a Common Market Protocol. These frameworks are designed to eliminate trade barriers and facilitate the free movement of goods, services, and people, further cementing Uganda's access rights within a cooperative regional structure.

An Indispensable Economic Partnership

The rhetoric underscores the critical economic relationship between Kenya and Uganda. The Port of Mombasa is the primary gateway for Ugandan trade. According to data from the Kenya Ports Authority (KPA) for the 2024 calendar year, Uganda remains the top transit destination, accounting for 65.7% of all transit cargo. In 2024, a total of 8.81 million tons of cargo handled by the port were destined for Uganda, a significant 23.8% increase from the 7.12 million tons in 2023.

This transit trade is a cornerstone of the Northern Corridor's economic activity, benefiting Kenya's logistics, transport, and services sectors while being indispensable for Uganda's economy. While Uganda has explored alternative routes through Tanzania's Port of Dar es Salaam, the Mombasa corridor remains its most vital trade artery. President Museveni's own remarks alluded to "endless discussions with Kenya" on infrastructure like the railway and pipelines, acknowledging the continuous engagement required to maintain this crucial economic link.

While the president's statements have generated diplomatic ripples, the extensive legal and economic architecture governing Kenya-Uganda relations provides a strong foundation for continued cooperation. The focus remains on the existing international and regional agreements that have, for decades, ensured Uganda's effective access to the Indian Ocean, underpinning a mutually beneficial, if sometimes complex, partnership.