NAIROBI, Kenya - Remarks by Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni suggesting potential future conflicts over sea access for landlocked nations have stirred diplomatic conversations across East Africa, prompting a measured response from Nairobi and highlighting the intricate balance between sovereign rights and regional economic realities.

Speaking during a radio interview in Mbale City on Tuesday, November 11, 2025, President Museveni described the denial of sea access to landlocked countries as "madness." He argued that nations without a coastline are entitled to the ocean for both economic and security needs. "That ocean belongs to me. Because it is my ocean. I am entitled to that ocean. In the future, we are going to have wars," he was quoted as saying, in what has been widely interpreted as a veiled reference to Uganda's reliance on Kenya's Port of Mombasa.

In response, Kenyan officials have sought to de-escalate the rhetoric. Prime Cabinet Secretary and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Musalia Mudavadi, assured Uganda and other regional partners of Kenya's commitment to international law. "Kenya is a responsible member of the international community... it is in our interest to facilitate any landlocked country that wishes to use the port of Mombasa," Mudavadi stated on Wednesday, November 19, 2025. Similarly, Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing'oei characterized the Ugandan leader's comments as "metaphorical," emphasizing President Museveni's understanding of international territorial laws.

The Legal Framework: UNCLOS and Freedom of Transit

At the heart of the debate is the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), a treaty ratified by both Kenya and Uganda. Part X of the convention specifically addresses the "Right of Access of Land-locked States to and from the Sea and Freedom of Transit." Article 125 grants landlocked states the right of access and freedom of transit through neighboring "transit states" using all forms of transport.

However, this right is not absolute and does not confer sovereignty over a corridor to the sea. The convention explicitly states that the "terms and modalities for exercising freedom of transit shall be agreed between the land-locked States and transit States concerned through bilateral, subregional or regional agreements." UNCLOS also affirms the full sovereignty of the transit state over its territory, allowing it to take necessary measures to protect its legitimate interests.

A Symbiotic Relationship: The Northern Corridor

President Museveni's remarks come despite a robust and long-standing framework governing Uganda's access to the sea through Kenya. The Northern Corridor Transit and Transport Agreement (NCTTA), first signed in 1985 and revised in 2007, is a multilateral treaty designed to facilitate transit cargo between the Port of Mombasa and the landlocked nations of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Uganda is by far the largest user of the Port of Mombasa, making the relationship one of deep economic interdependence. According to data from the Kenya Ports Authority (KPA) for the year 2024, Ugandan cargo accounted for 65.7% of all transit cargo, totaling 8.8 million tonnes. This vital trade route is essential for Uganda's economy, facilitating the import of fuel, consumer goods, and industrial machinery, and the export of commodities like coffee and tea.

Regional Geopolitical Context

The timing of the Ugandan president's comments is significant, echoing recent geopolitical maneuvers in the Horn of Africa. Landlocked Ethiopia, a nation of over 120 million people, signed a controversial Memorandum of Understanding with the self-declared republic of Somaliland on January 1, 2024, to lease 20 kilometers of coastline for a naval base and commercial port access. The deal, which offered potential recognition for Somaliland in return, was vehemently condemned by Somalia as a violation of its sovereignty, escalating regional tensions.

Analysts suggest Museveni's rhetoric may be a strategic signal, reflecting a broader anxiety among landlocked nations about securing reliable and long-term sea access, rather than an immediate threat. His statements serve as a reminder to coastal states of the strategic importance of transit corridors and could be a tactic to leverage better terms or pre-empt future logistical or political hurdles.

While Kenya-Uganda relations are strong, with numerous bilateral agreements in place, they have faced periodic tensions, including a historical border conflict from 1987-1990 and more recent disputes over trade and the Migingo Island. However, the shared economic imperatives of the Northern Corridor have consistently provided a foundation for pragmatic cooperation. The planned extension of the Standard Gauge Railway to Uganda and other joint infrastructure projects further underscore this mutual dependency.