The simmering internal war within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has drawn a sharp rebuke from the government side. Tana River Senator Danson Mungatana has dismissed the "rebel" faction led by Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna as a storm in a tea cup, predicting it will collapse under the weight of the solid "broad-based" deal.

Speaking in Nairobi, Mungatana characterized the rebellion—dubbed the "Linda Mwananchi" movement—as a desperate attempt to remain relevant in a political landscape that has moved on. The friction arises from the cooperation agreement signed between President William Ruto and the late Raila Odinga, which saw key ODM figures join the cabinet. Sifuna and his allies argue this has castrated the opposition, leaving the common citizen defenseless against state excesses.

The "Handshake" Solidity

Mungatana’s confidence stems from the structural integration of the two parties. He argues that the deal is no longer just a verbal agreement between two men but a government policy that is delivering stability. "You cannot fight a machine that your own party leader helped build," Mungatana observed, referring to the late Odinga’s endorsement of the coalition before his death in October 2025.

The Senator claims that Sifuna’s camp is misreading the public mood. While the "Linda Mwananchi" rallies have drawn crowds in urban centers like Nairobi and Kitengela, Mungatana believes these are transient frustrations rather than a sustained political movement. He points to the lack of alternative leadership structures outside the ODM mainstream, which remains firmly in the grip of the pro-government faction led by the likes of Oburu Oginga.

• Factional Split: ODM is effectively split into the "Government Cooperation" wing and the "Sifuna Rejectionist" wing.
• The Ruto Factor: President Ruto has ignored the noise, focusing on working with the cooperative wing to consolidate his 2027 base, as predicted by other analysts.
• Grassroots Confusion: The mixed signals from party leadership have left the grassroots supporters confused, unsure whether to protest against the government or celebrate their leaders’ ministerial appointments.

A War of Attrition

The "Linda Mwananchi" initiative seeks to reclaim the opposition space, but without the blessing of the party’s traditional power brokers, it faces an uphill battle. Mungatana suggests that Sifuna will eventually be forced to fall in line or exit the party entirely. The history of Kenyan politics is littered with rebels who were crushed by the party machinery, and the Tana River Senator sees no different outcome here.

As the political temperatures rise, the test will be whether Sifuna can sustain the momentum of dissent without the resources and patronage that come with government cooperation. For now, Mungatana writes them off as "noise makers" in a theatre of serious governance.