A frantic week of diplomacy is underway to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, with US special envoy Steve Witkoff meeting President Vladimir Putin in Moscow today. The talks follow Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Paris, as a revised peace plan circulates between Washington, Kyiv, and Moscow.

This diplomatic flurry aims to break the stalemate in a conflict now in its 1,378th day. Yet, it arrives amid deep skepticism from European allies and the grim reality of ongoing Russian attacks. For Kenyans, the outcome of these talks could have direct consequences, influencing the stubbornly high prices of fuel, fertilizer, and staple foods like bread that have strained household budgets since the war began.

A Plan Under Scrutiny

President Zelenskyy, speaking in Paris on Monday, offered cautious optimism, stating that a redrafted US-led peace plan “looks better,” but insisted that Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are non-negotiable. This comes after an initial proposal was heavily criticized by European leaders for favouring Russian demands, including the potential ceding of Ukrainian land.

However, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, warned that the Moscow meeting risks putting undue pressure on Kyiv. “I am afraid that all the pressure will be put on the victim,” Kallas noted, emphasizing that Russia alone is the aggressor.

The White House remains publicly optimistic, but the envoy at the centre of the talks, Steve Witkoff, is a controversial figure. A recent report alleged he coached a Putin adviser on how to pitch peace terms to former US President Donald Trump, raising concerns about his impartiality.

The War's Echo in Kenya

While diplomats shuttle between capitals, the war’s economic shockwaves continue to be felt in Nairobi and across Kenya. The conflict has severely disrupted global supply chains, driving up the cost of essential imports.

• Fuel Prices: Global increases in fossil fuel prices, driven by the war, have directly impacted transport and production costs for Kenyan businesses and commuters.
• Food Security: Russia and Ukraine are major sources of wheat and fertilizer. Disruptions have led to price spikes for these commodities, affecting everything from the cost of a loaf of bread to the yield of a farmer's crop.
• Economic Cost: One study suggested the war may have cost Kenya's economy up to 2.8% of its GDP in 2022 alone, highlighting the significant local impact of the distant conflict.

Diplomacy Under Fire

The diplomatic push is starkly contrasted by Russia's actions on the ground. On Monday, a Russian missile attack on the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro killed four people and wounded at least 40 others, officials reported. The strike damaged businesses, an office building, and dozens of cars, serving as a brutal reminder of the war's daily human toll.

As Witkoff meets Putin, the world watches to see if a path to a just peace is possible or if, as some fear, Ukraine will be asked to pay the highest price for it. For Zelenskyy, the challenge remains to navigate the complex pressures from allies without sacrificing the hard-fought sovereignty of his nation.