BUENOS AIRES - Argentina’s ruling party, La Libertad Avanza (LLA), secured a major victory in the midterm legislative elections on Sunday, 26 October 2025, providing a significant boost to President Javier Milei’s radical economic agenda. With over 95% of votes counted, LLA captured nearly 41% of the national vote, a result seen as a crucial public endorsement of the self-styled anarcho-capitalist’s painful austerity measures.

The main Peronist opposition, Fuerza Patria, trailed with approximately 32% of the vote. The outcome marks a dramatic turnaround for Milei, whose party suffered a heavy defeat in the key Buenos Aires provincial elections just last month, losing by more than 13 percentage points and sparking market volatility. This time, LLA reversed its fortunes, winning in the province that is home to nearly 40% of the electorate.

The election took place amid a controversial and highly conditional US$40 billion financial support package from the United States. The Trump administration explicitly tied the aid—comprising a US$20 billion currency swap and another US$20 billion in private financing—to a victory for Milei's party. President Donald Trump stated that if Milei’s party lost, the US would not be “generous with Argentina.” This intervention was criticized by the Argentine opposition as foreign meddling and an attempt to “extort” voters.

Legislative Hurdles Remain

Argentinians voted to renew 127 of the 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies (the lower house) and 24 of the 72 seats in the Senate. While a landslide, the victory does not grant LLA a majority in either chamber of Congress. However, the result is projected to increase LLA's seats in the lower house to over 100, securing the critical one-third threshold needed to sustain presidential vetoes and block opposition-led spending bills that could derail Milei's fiscal consolidation plans. The Peronist coalition is expected to remain the largest bloc in the Senate.

The election was marked by the lowest voter turnout since Argentina's return to democracy in 1983, at just under 68%, suggesting significant voter apathy or disillusionment.

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

While direct bilateral ties between Kenya and Argentina remain focused on areas like agriculture and parliamentary diplomacy, Milei’s high-risk economic experiment serves as a crucial case study for Nairobi. Both nations grapple with significant public debt, high inflation, and the strictures of International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs. Argentina is currently the IMF's largest debtor.

Milei’s administration has implemented severe austerity, slashing public spending and devaluing the currency to tackle hyperinflation, which peaked at an annualized rate of over 1,400% in December 2023. These measures have shown some success in reducing inflation—projected to be around 41% for 2025—and achieving a budget surplus. However, they have come at a high social cost, with rising poverty and stagnating economic growth. The IMF recently downgraded Argentina's 2025 growth forecast from 5.5% to 4.5%.

For Kenya, which has faced public backlash over tax hikes and austerity measures tied to its own IMF and World Bank programs, Argentina's path highlights the volatile relationship between painful economic reforms and the public's political mandate. The election result suggests that, for now, a significant portion of Argentinians are willing to endure hardship in the hope of long-term stability. This dynamic offers a powerful, if cautionary, lesson on the political economy of reform that will be closely watched by policymakers in Nairobi and across the region.

The success or failure of Milei's 'shock therapy,' now bolstered by this electoral win but still facing significant legislative and economic headwinds, will provide valuable insights into the viability of radical free-market solutions for developing economies facing fiscal crises.