The political honeymoon is over before it even began. The proposed marriage of convenience between ODM and UDA is hitting the rocks, with zoning deals collapsing and trust evaporating. For the opposition MPs who banked their careers on this pact, panic is setting in.

The dream was simple: a zoning arrangement that would protect ODM strongholds from UDA encroachment in 2027. But reality has been harsh. UDA Secretary General Hassan Omar and other hardliners have made it clear—there will be no free passes. The ruling party intends to field candidates everywhere, leaving their "partners" exposed.

The Betrayal of the Bastions

Edwin Sifuna, ODM’s firebrand Secretary General, saw this coming. His declaration that the pact is "dead" reflects the growing realization that UDA is not looking for a partner; they are looking for a meal. By refusing to zone, UDA is effectively declaring war on ODM’s grassroots base.

• The Direct Ticket Trap: ODM MPs who hoped for direct tickets under the coalition umbrella are now facing the terrifying prospect of competitive primaries or, worse, a UDA opponent funded by the state.
• The Mudavadi Factor: Even Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi has dismissed zoning, arguing that "politics is about competition." The walls are closing in on Raila’s men.

A Strategic Blunder?

ODM’s dalliance with the government was always a gamble. They traded their opposition credentials for a seat at the table, only to find the chair leg is broken. Now, they are caught in no-man's-land—distrusted by the voters for working with Ruto, and disrespected by Ruto for being weak.

The panic is real. As 2027 approaches, the Orange party must decide: do they fight for their soul, or continue this abusive relationship until they are swallowed whole?