High-Stakes By-Election Framed by Rigging Allegations

NAIROBI – Prominent political analyst Herman Manyora has asserted that the Democratic Party (DP) candidate, Newton Karish, is poised to win the Mbeere North parliamentary by-election unless the election is “massively rigged” by state machinery. Speaking on his YouTube channel on Thursday, November 20, 2025, Manyora claimed that Karish, a musician-turned-politician backed by a united opposition front, holds a decisive advantage on the ground. “The DP candidate will win the election, unless the election is massively rigged. You have to rig for Newton Karish to lose, but it will make a statement,” Manyora stated, adding that such a move would have significant political repercussions.

A Proxy Battle for Mount Kenya

The by-election, scheduled for Thursday, November 27, 2025, has transcended local politics, evolving into a significant proxy war for political dominance in the vote-rich Mount Kenya region. The contest pits the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA), led by Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, against a coalition of opposition figures, including former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and former Attorney General Justin Muturi. The seat became vacant after President William Ruto appointed its former Member of Parliament, Geoffrey Ruku, as the Cabinet Secretary for Public Service in April 2025.

The UDA is fielding Leonard Wa Muthende, while the opposition has coalesced around DP's Newton Karish, who is the current Member of County Assembly (MCA) for Muminji Ward. The campaign has become a crucial test of President Ruto's influence in a region that was once his stronghold, following a political fallout with Gachagua, who was impeached in October 2024.

Counter-Accusations and IEBC Warnings

Manyora's comments echo persistent allegations from the opposition camp. Throughout the campaign, leaders like Gachagua and Muturi have accused the government of deploying state resources, engaging in voter bribery, and planning to manipulate the election's outcome. On Sunday, November 16, 2025, Gachagua alleged a plot to use goons to disrupt his rallies and state officials to buy votes.

Conversely, the UDA camp has vehemently denied these claims. Public Service CS Geoffrey Ruku, on October 7, 2025, dismissed the rigging allegations as “crocodile tears” and propaganda from leaders who have sensed defeat. UDA chairperson and Embu Governor Cecily Mbarire has also accused Gachagua of planning violence to later blame on the ruling party.

These tensions have not gone unnoticed by the electoral body. On Friday, November 14, 2025, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), in a joint statement with the National Police Service (NPS) and the National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC), identified Mbeere North as a high-risk area for electoral violence. The IEBC warned of “isolated incidents of violence, intimidation, and inflammatory utterances” and stated it would not hesitate to bar candidates found breaching the Electoral Code of Conduct. IEBC Chairman Erastus Ethekon has since reiterated the commission's commitment to delivering a peaceful and credible election.

A Race Too Close to Call

Despite the confident proclamations from both sides, recent polling data suggests an exceptionally tight race. A survey conducted by Mizani Africa between November 17 and 19, 2025, showed UDA’s Leonard Wa Muthende with a slight lead of 44.6% against DP’s Newton Karish at 42.4%. With the difference falling within the poll's margin of error, Mizani Africa declared the race “too close to call,” highlighting the deep divisions and high stakes in the constituency. The poll also indicated that UDA remains the most popular party in the constituency at 38.9%, followed closely by Gachagua's Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) at 33.1%.

As national political figures continue to dominate the campaign, some residents and local leaders have expressed concern that pressing local issues—such as water scarcity, poor infrastructure, and healthcare—are being overshadowed by the battle for regional supremacy. The outcome on November 27 will not only give Mbeere North a new representative but will also be interpreted as a significant indicator of the political landscape in Mount Kenya ahead of the 2027 general elections.