The military government of Mali has officially bowed to pressure, instituting draconian fuel rationing measures as the capital, Bamako, runs dry. This desperate move confirms that the jihadist blockade is no longer just a security threat—it is an existential economic chokehold.

For months, the al-Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) has targeted the supply arteries of this landlocked nation, but the situation has now tipped into a full-blown catastrophe. The rationing edict is the government's admission that they can no longer guarantee the basic energy needs of their citizens, a scenario that sends shivers down the spine of any nation reliant on imported fuel, including Kenya.

A City in Darkness

Residents of Bamako are waking up to a new, grim reality. Service stations are dry, and the black market price for a litre of petrol has skyrocketed to over 3,000 CFA francs (approx. KSh 650). To put that in perspective, imagine paying KSh 700 for a litre of super petrol in Nairobi; the economy would grind to a halt within days. That is exactly what is happening in Mali.

The blockade is strategic and ruthless. By cutting off the transport corridors from Senegal and Ivory Coast, the militants are effectively laying siege to the capital without needing to enter it. "We are dying slowly," said Moussa Traoré, a taxi driver in Bamako, via a verified social media post. "No fuel means no work, no food, no life."

• Power Cuts: The national utility company has extended load-shedding to 18 hours a day, leaving hospitals running on fumes and businesses in the dark.
• Food Inflation: Transport costs have tripled, driving up the price of basic staples like rice and millet by over 200%.
• Military Response: General Assimi Goïta’s junta has promised to break the blockade, but despite assistance from Russian Wagner mercenaries, the roads remain "death traps" for tankers.

The Sahel's Warning to East Africa

The crisis in Mali is a cautionary tale for the East African Community. It highlights the fragility of supply chains in the face of asymmetric warfare. Just as Al-Shabaab has attempted to disrupt logistics in Lamu and Mandera, the JNIM is proving that you don't need to capture a city to conquer it—you just need to starve it of energy.

Security analysts in Nairobi warn that the "Mali Model" could inspire copycat tactics across the continent. "If a non-state actor can paralyze a national capital by controlling the highways, it changes the entire security calculus," notes a report by a regional think tank.

The Rationing Protocol

Under the new rules, private vehicles are limited to 20 litres per week, while public transport is capped at 30 litres. Priority is given to security forces and emergency services. However, enforcement has already led to chaotic scenes at pumps, with reports of fistfights and soldiers firing warning shots to disperse angry crowds.

As Mali descends further into this energy abyss, the world watches to see if the junta can restore order or if the tanks will run dry before the guns do.