Mainstream political parties across Europe are increasingly allowing far-right ideologies to dictate the political agenda, a new study published in the European Journal of Political Research has found. Researchers from the Berlin Social Science Center describe this as a significant shortcoming that unintentionally aids the far right by validating their ideas and broadening their dissemination.

The findings, based on an automated text analysis of over 520,000 articles from six German newspapers spanning more than two decades, indicate a concerning trend. As far-right groups shifted their focus from fringe issues in the late 1990s to topics like integration and migration, mainstream parties responded by reshaping their communications, thereby boosting the spread of these ideas and signalling their legitimacy to voters.

Teresa Völker, a political sociologist at the Berlin Social Science Center and co-author of the study, emphasised the critical implications for democracy. She stated that the political communication of mainstream parties plays a central, yet underestimated, role in the electoral success of the far right. This impact is evident even when mainstream parties are critical, as the attention itself is key in a competitive information landscape.

Kenyan Context: A Mirror to Global Trends?

While the research focused on Germany, co-author Daniel Saldivia Gonzatti suggests this normalisation effect likely applies to countries across Europe and beyond. In Kenya, the influence of right-wing narratives is increasingly observed, particularly through digital platforms, shaping public debate and policy discussions.

Kenya's political landscape, historically characterised by ethnic-centred politics, has seen a rise in rhetoric that often intersects with issues of gender, sexuality, and societal dynamics. The 'Hustler versus Dynasty' narrative, popularised by President William Ruto, for instance, shifted political debate towards class-based lines, garnering significant support among the poor and unemployed youth. This populist approach, while distinct from traditional far-right movements, demonstrates how certain narratives can gain traction and influence mainstream discourse.

The spread of misinformation and hate speech, often linked to right-wing narratives, poses challenges to democratic governance in Kenya. Social media algorithms, prioritising engagement, can amplify harmful misogynistic, anti-gender, trans- and homophobic messaging, contributing to a divisive political environment. This trend is directly linked to the global rise of right-wing populism, which exploits economic and cultural anxieties by positioning itself as the voice of the 'ordinary people' while pushing nationalist and socially conservative agendas.

Laws and Governance

The Kenyan government has attempted to curb disinformation through measures such as the Computer Misuse and Cybercrimes Act (CMCA) and amendments to the Kenya Information and Communications Act. However, concerns have been raised that such laws could be used to suppress critical voices.

The National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) has actively investigated cases of hate speech by politicians, lamenting the lack of political goodwill in addressing these issues, especially when incendiary remarks are made in the presence of national leaders.

Risks and Implications for Kenya

The amplification of right-wing rhetoric and associated disinformation can undermine democratic institutions, foster public mistrust in electoral processes, and potentially justify authorities in controlling information flows. This could lead to a weakened democratic culture and increased ethnic tensions, particularly in a country with a history of highly contested elections and propaganda exploiting ethnic sentiments.

The study's co-authors advocate for mainstream political parties to develop their own distinct discourses, especially on sensitive topics like migration and integration, rather than merely reacting to far-right messaging. This proactive approach is crucial to prevent the far right from setting the overall agenda and influencing voter perceptions.

What to Watch

The full extent of the impact of right-wing rhetoric on specific policy outcomes and Kenya's long-term political trajectory remains an area of ongoing observation. The effectiveness and fairness of legislative measures aimed at curbing disinformation will continue to be debated, with ongoing discussions about their potential to suppress dissent. As Kenya approaches the 2027 general elections, the rhetoric employed by political actors and the media's role in framing these narratives will be crucial in shaping public opinion and the democratic process.