Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is learning a hard lesson in modern geopolitics: fair-weather friends vanish when the storm clouds gather. For years, the socialist leader could bank on the unwavering support of Beijing and Moscow to counter American pressure. But today, as the Caribbean waters churn with US naval assets, those phone lines appear to have gone silent.

Once the bedrock of his survival, support from China and Russia has dissolved into mere rhetoric just as Washington deploys nuclear-powered assets to his doorstep. For nations like Kenya, often navigating the delicate diplomatic rift between East and West, the message from Caracas is stark: great power protection is never guaranteed.

A Silence Deafening in Caracas

The relationship was forged in a different era. Under Maduro’s predecessor and mentor, Hugo Chávez, Venezuela was a strategic beachhead for Russia and China in the Western Hemisphere. They poured in political backing, military hardware, and loans.

However, geopolitical analysts now observe a dramatic pivot. While statements of solidarity are still issued from the Kremlin and the Forbidden City, the flow of concrete military and financial aid has dried up. Experts suggest that for Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, propping up Maduro has become a liability that outweighs the strategic benefits, especially facing a renewed and aggressive US foreign policy.

The Caribbean Build-Up

The vacuum left by Venezuela's allies is being filled rapidly by American hard power. The Trump administration has orchestrated a massive deployment of force in the region, ostensibly to combat narcotics but viewed by many as a prelude to regime change. The scale of the operation is staggering:

• Naval Dominance: Deployment of Navy destroyers and a nuclear-powered submarine.
• Air Superiority: Surveillance aircraft and spy planes patrolling the coastline.
• Troop Surge: Approximately 15,000 troops mobilized to the region—a force roughly equivalent to half the active personnel of the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF).

The operation is already kinetic. US forces have conducted strikes on vessels they allege are smuggling drugs, resulting in over 80 fatalities. In a move that escalates tensions further, American forces recently seized an oil tanker off the Venezuelan coast, citing sanctions violations.

Cocaine or Coup?

The official line from the White House is clear: this is a counternarcotics operation. The Trump administration asserts that the military build-up is necessary to dismantle drug cartels exploiting the Venezuelan crisis.

Yet, the optics suggest a different endgame. Maduro himself, along with a chorus of international observers, argues that the "drug war" narrative is a Trojan horse for regime change. With his economy in tatters and his key allies retreating to the sidelines, Maduro stands more exposed than at any point in his presidency.

As the pressure mounts, the question is no longer whether Russia or China will intervene, but how long Maduro can hold the line alone.