NAIROBI, KENYA – Close to 40 Kenyan counties, including the Nairobi metropolitan area, are expected to experience a significant change in weather patterns this week, with light rainfall replacing the recent heavy downpours. The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), in its weekly forecast released on Tuesday, November 11, 2025, projects a period of reduced precipitation accompanied by a surge in daytime temperatures, with some regions expected to hit highs of 38°C.

According to the forecast covering the period from Tuesday, November 11, to Monday, November 17, the intensity of the ongoing October-November-December 'short rains' season is expected to ease across several parts of the country. Regions that will be affected by the light showers include the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley, the Coast, the South-eastern lowlands, and North-eastern Kenya.

Temperature Shift and Regional Breakdown

A notable feature of this week's weather is the anticipated rise in temperatures. Daytime highs are expected to exceed 30°C in several areas. The Coast, North-eastern, and North-western regions are projected to be the warmest, with some parts of the South-eastern lowlands and the Highlands West of the Rift Valley also experiencing similar high temperatures. Specifically, counties such as Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo may see temperatures climbing to between 37°C and 38°C. In contrast, some areas in the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, the Central Rift Valley, and regions near Mount Kilimanjaro are forecast to have chilly nights, with temperatures dropping below 10°C.

For Nairobi and its environs, the forecast indicates a mix of sunny intervals and cloudy conditions, with a chance of light afternoon showers in some areas. The coastal strip, including Mombasa, Kilifi, and Lamu counties, is expected to have partly cloudy nights and sunny mornings, with occasional light showers. In the Lake Victoria Basin and the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, which includes counties like Kisumu, Kakamega, and Eldoret, residents can expect morning showers and afternoon thunderstorms in some locations.

Implications for Agriculture and Public Safety

The shift to lighter rainfall and higher temperatures follows a period of sustained heavy rains in October and early November that led to soil saturation, localised flooding, and landslides, particularly in western Kenya. While the reduction in rainfall may provide some respite to flood-prone areas, the Kenya Meteorological Department advises continued caution. The agency has previously warned that even with reduced rainfall, the risk of isolated flooding in poorly drained urban centres and landslides in hilly areas remains due to the already saturated ground.

The forecast of unevenly distributed rainfall, with intermittent dry spells, presents a mixed outlook for the agricultural sector, which is central to Kenya's economy. Unpredictable weather patterns in 2025 have already posed significant challenges for farmers, disrupting traditional planting and harvesting seasons. The anticipated warmer-than-usual temperatures across the country could also influence both rainfall intensity and duration, further impacting crop yields. Farmers, particularly in central and eastern Kenya, have been urged to practice water conservation in anticipation of potential dry spells.

The public is advised to stay updated with daily forecasts and advisories from the Kenya Meteorological Department and county-level disaster management teams. Motorists and pedestrians are urged to exercise caution on the roads, as flash floods can still occur, making roads slippery and dangerous.