The knives are out in Canberra. Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor is expected to launch a formal challenge for the Liberal Party leadership within days, threatening to end Sussan Ley’s tenure after a disastrous run of polls.

Sources within the party confirm that the challenge is now a matter of "when, not if." The catalyst for the spill is the Coalition’s catastrophic performance in the latest Newspoll, which shows their primary vote collapsing to a historic low of 18%—a humiliating figure that places the party nine points behind Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. For a party that considers itself the natural party of government, these numbers are not just bad; they are an extinction-level event.

The “Something Has to Change” Camp

Conservative MPs have galvanized around Taylor, arguing that Ley’s leadership has become untenable. The recent chaos following the split with the Nationals has left the Liberals looking fractured and rudderless. "We cannot go on like this," one backbencher whispered. "We are staring into the abyss." Taylor, a leading figure of the party’s right faction, is seen by his supporters as the only one capable of stopping the bleeding and restoring the party’s conservative base.

A leadership spill is unlikely to happen on Tuesday due to Senate estimates hearings keeping many voters away. The coup plotters are reportedly eyeing Thursday night or Friday morning for a special party room meeting to force the issue.

• Ley’s Defiance: Despite the circling vultures, Sussan Ley remains defiant. "Yes, it is," she told Sky News when asked if her job was safe, insisting she does not expect a spill this week.
• The Mechanics: To challenge, Taylor must first resign from the shadow cabinet—a high-stakes gamble that will signal the point of no return.

A Party at War with Itself

The looming spill is a symptom of a deeper identity crisis within the Australian Liberals. Caught between the moderate "Teal" independents in the cities and the hard-right conservatives in the regions, the party is tearing itself apart. Sussan Ley’s attempt to bridge this divide appears to have failed, and Angus Taylor represents a sharp pivot back to the right.

As the week unfolds, the halls of Parliament House will be thick with intrigue. For the Liberals, the question is whether a change of captain can save the ship, or if they are simply rearranging deckchairs on the Titanic.