Crowds gathered in Tel Aviv on Monday, October 13, 2025, to celebrate the release of the last 20 living hostages held by Hamas, a significant step in the ongoing Gaza ceasefire agreement. This development, coming after more than two years of captivity for some, has been met with widespread relief and is expected to shape near-term public debate and policy execution globally.

Historical and Political Context

The release is part of a broader ceasefire deal, mediated by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt, which also includes provisions for the release of Palestinian prisoners, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from populated areas, and the facilitation of humanitarian aid into Gaza. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has deep historical roots, with the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948 and the subsequent displacement of Palestinians.

Kenya has historically maintained diplomatic relations with both Israel and Palestine, officially recognizing Palestinian statehood in May 1989. Kenya's foreign policy on the conflict has often sought a balanced approach, advocating for a two-state solution. However, its stance has at times drawn scrutiny. Following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, President William Ruto initially condemned the attacks and expressed solidarity with Israel. This position was later clarified by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, emphasizing condemnation of terrorism while reaffirming support for a peaceful resolution and expressing concern over disproportionate retaliatory attacks by Israel.

Laws, Policy, and Governance

Prime Cabinet Secretary and Cabinet Secretary for Foreign and Diaspora Affairs Musalia Mudavadi, in a statement on Thursday, October 9, 2025, welcomed the first phase of the ceasefire agreement, describing it as a vital step toward easing human suffering in Gaza. Mudavadi noted that the accord aligns with Kenya's long-standing and principled position, as articulated by President William Ruto during the 80th Session of the United Nations General Assembly in September 2024. Kenya's foreign policy, as outlined in a new sessional paper, supports the African Union's position of achieving a two-state solution through negotiations based on relevant UN resolutions.

Stakeholders and Testimonies

Public opinion in Kenya regarding the conflict is divided. While some Kenyans, particularly within civil society and activist groups, express strong solidarity with the Palestinian cause, drawing parallels to Africa's own struggles against colonialism, others view Israel as a crucial ally in counter-terrorism efforts. The Muslim community in Kenya has actively raised funds, such as KES 5.4 million for Udhiyah (Qurbani) in Gaza, demonstrating tangible support for Palestinians. Pro-Palestine protests have occurred in Nairobi, with participants calling for an end to the war and denouncing the humanitarian crisis.

Evidence and Data

• Hostage Release: All 20 remaining living Israeli hostages were released by Hamas on Monday, October 13, 2025, after more than two years in captivity.
• Prisoner Exchange: In exchange for the hostages, Israel released nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, including 250 terror convicts serving life sentences.
• Casualties: Over 67,600 Palestinians have been killed in the conflict, according to Gaza's Health Ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians and combatants but states that approximately half the deaths were women and children.
• Displacement: More than 1.9 million Palestinians, over 90% of Gaza's total population, have been forcibly displaced.

Risks and Implications for Kenya

The prolonged conflict in the Middle East poses several risks for Kenya. Economically, it can lead to increased oil prices, impacting fuel costs in Kenya, and a strengthening of the US dollar against the Kenyan shilling. Security-wise, the conflict risks reigniting regional instability and terrorism, with Kenya's cooperation with Western allies potentially making it a target for radical groups.

Unknowns and Controversies

While the first phase of the ceasefire has been approved, details on how it integrates into a broader, lasting peace plan remain unclear. Hamas has yet to release the remains of all deceased hostages, despite being required to do so under the deal. There are also concerns about Hamas reasserting authority in Gaza following the ceasefire.

Timeline and Next Steps

The current ceasefire commenced on Thursday, October 9, 2025. The release of the last living hostages occurred on Monday, October 13, 2025. An international task force is expected to work on locating deceased hostages not returned within 72 hours of the ceasefire.

What to Watch

Observers will be keenly watching for the full implementation of the ceasefire agreement, particularly the return of all deceased hostages and the sustained delivery of humanitarian aid. The long-term implications for regional stability and Kenya's economic and security landscape will also be critical areas of focus. Further diplomatic efforts towards a comprehensive two-state solution will be essential for lasting peace.