GLOBAL – In the mountains of Kyrgyzstan, the rustling of golden leaves underfoot signals the annual walnut harvest, an ancient economic lifeline for communities surrounding the Arslanbob forest. But this vital ecosystem, the world’s largest natural walnut forest, is shrinking. A combination of overgrazing, illegal logging, and rapidly rising temperatures is thinning the ancient groves, presenting a stark case study with urgent implications for Kenya’s own threatened forest landscapes.

For decades, local villagers like Asel Alisheva have witnessed the change. "The forest used to be so dense but it has thinned out," she told Agence France-Presse (AFP), recalling a time when the woods were almost impenetrable. Today, the thinning canopy is a visible symptom of a deeper environmental crisis—one that mirrors the challenges facing Kenya's critical water towers, including the Mau and Aberdare forests.

A Tale of Two Forests

The pressures on the Arslanbob forest, which spans over 600,000 hectares, are a complex mix of economic necessity and environmental strain. Livestock numbers in the region have grown, leading to overgrazing that experts say is two-and-a-half times what the pastures can sustainably support. Cows and horses eat young walnut saplings and strip the bark from older trees, preventing natural regeneration and slowly killing the ancient forest. This pattern of degradation is strikingly similar to the threats facing Kenya's Mau Forest Complex, where illegal settlements, logging, and charcoal production have led to the destruction of over 107,000 hectares in the last two decades—approximately 25% of its total area.

In both nations, these forests are not just ecological treasures but economic engines. The Arslanbob forest provides around 16,000 jobs and produces up to 3,000 tonnes of walnuts in a good year, a vital source of income for thousands of households. Similarly, the Mau Complex is the single most important water catchment for Kenya, feeding numerous lakes and rivers and supporting the livelihoods of millions in agriculture and energy production. Its degradation threatens tea plantations, hydropower stations, and urban water supplies.

The Accelerating Threat of Climate Change

Compounding the human pressures is the accelerating impact of climate change. Central Asia is warming at twice the global average, with temperatures rising by about 1.5°C since 1991. Kyrgyzstan is ranked as the third most vulnerable country to climate change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. This has led to more frequent droughts, which dry out the soil and weaken the walnut trees, reducing both the quantity and quality of the harvest. Farmers predict that walnut yields may fall by as much as 70 percent due to climate change and soil erosion.

This climate trajectory serves as a critical warning for Kenya. The nation's key ecosystems, from the Aberdares to Mount Kenya, are already experiencing stress from altered rainfall patterns and rising temperatures. The consequences of inaction, as seen in Kyrgyzstan, include diminished agricultural productivity, increased water scarcity, and greater food insecurity.

International Intervention and Local Solutions

Recognizing the crisis, international bodies have stepped in. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Green Climate Fund are implementing the "Carbon Sequestration through Climate Investments in Forests and Rangelands (CS-FOR)" project in Kyrgyzstan. This initiative aims to restore degraded pastures and forests, with plans to establish new plantations across 3,440 hectares and facilitate natural regeneration on another 2,560 hectares. The World Bank has also financed projects to strengthen sustainable forest management, approving over US$16 million for such initiatives since 2015.

These efforts in Kyrgyzstan offer valuable lessons for Kenya's approach to forest management. Kenya's Forest Conservation and Management Act of 2016 promotes Participatory Forest Management (PFM), involving local communities in conservation through Community Forest Associations (CFAs). However, challenges remain in ensuring these communities receive an equitable share of revenues to incentivize their conservation efforts. The success stories from the rehabilitation of the Aberdare forest, led by the Green Belt Movement, demonstrate that community-led initiatives can yield significant results, with over 4.1 million trees planted on 3,900 hectares between 2006 and 2012.

A Shared Future

While direct trade between Kenya and Kyrgyzstan is minimal—Kenyan imports from Kyrgyzstan were just US$196,500 in 2023—the environmental and economic parallels are profound. The struggle to save the Arslanbob walnut forest is a microcosm of a global challenge: balancing the immediate economic needs of rural populations with the long-term imperative of preserving natural ecosystems against the backdrop of a changing climate.

For Kenya, the fading of Kyrgyzstan's ancient forest is not a distant story but a glimpse into a possible future for its own natural heritage. It underscores the urgency of enforcing environmental laws, empowering local communities as true partners in conservation, and investing in climate-resilient agriculture to secure both livelihoods and landscapes for generations to come.