Claims of Pre-Poll Manipulation

NAIROBI—Former Public Service Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria on Saturday, November 22, 2025, alleged a plot to rig the 2027 general elections, linking his claims to a recent surge in violence during campaigns for by-elections scheduled for Thursday, November 27. Speaking during an interview with Embu-based journalists, the outspoken former official warned President William Ruto's administration that the international community is closely monitoring the political climate in Kenya.

“I want to tell the government: the international community is watching. How we conduct these elections is of interest to the international community,” Kuria stated. He cautioned that Kenyans' tolerance for electoral malpractice is at an “all-time low” and that any attempts to subvert the democratic process would be met with resistance. “You think whatever happened in Tanzania will be replicated here? Kenyans are not Tanzanians. Don't try it here. It will not be business as usual,” he added, alluding to elections in the neighbouring country that were criticized for irregularities.

A Prelude of Violence

Kuria’s stark warning comes against a backdrop of violent confrontations in the lead-up to mini-polls in several parts of the country, including Mbeere North, Kabuchai, and Kasipul. In Kabuchai, Bungoma County, goons attacked the convoy of Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya on Saturday, November 22, while he was campaigning for a Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) candidate. The incident, which left several people injured and vehicles damaged, was labelled by opposition figures as “State-sponsored violence.”

Similar scenes have unfolded in other regions. In Siaya's Ugunja constituency, ODM campaigns turned volatile, leaving three men with gunshot wounds after clashes between rival youth groups. In Kasipul, rising tensions between supporters of ODM candidate Boyd Were and independent contender Philip Aroko have led to deadly clashes, with two fatalities reported on November 6, prompting the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to fine both candidates KSh 1 million each for incitement. The violence has also included voter bribery and intimidation, with reports of residents queuing for cash handouts after rallies.

IEBC Under Pressure

The escalating violence and rigging claims place immense pressure on the IEBC, which has repeatedly cautioned political leaders against making unsubstantiated allegations that could erode public trust in the electoral process. In a statement from July 2025, following similar rigging claims by other politicians, the commission described such utterances as “reckless and unacceptable in a democratic society.” The IEBC has warned that its Electoral Code of Conduct Enforcement Committee will sanction candidates found to be in violation, with penalties ranging from fines to disqualification.

Kuria’s comments also echo his previous controversial assertions in June 2025, where he claimed Kenya might not hold an election in 2027 due to a legal stalemate over the appointment of new IEBC commissioners. Citing the 2008 Krigler Report, he argued that a fully functional and independent electoral commission must be in place at least two years before a credible poll can be held.

Historical Context and Future Implications

The current political climate is deeply resonant with Kenya’s history of contentious and often violent elections. The 2007-2008 post-election crisis, which was triggered by allegations of widespread electoral manipulation, resulted in the deaths of over 1,100 people and the displacement of more than 600,000. That period of violence was fueled by ethnic mobilization, a factor that continues to define Kenyan politics.

The by-elections are seen as a critical test for the ruling coalition and the emerging United Opposition, allegedly associated with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. The high-stakes contests in constituencies like Mbeere North have become battlegrounds for political supremacy between key national figures, foreshadowing the intense competition expected in 2027. As security agencies increase their presence in the affected areas, analysts and citizens alike are watching to see whether the IEBC and political leaders can de-escalate the rising tensions and ensure the upcoming polls are conducted freely and fairly, preventing a repeat of the nation's turbulent electoral past.