The Kremlin has thrown its weight behind President Donald Trump’s controversial new national security strategy, hailing a "vision" that sidelines the European Union and potentially redraws the map of Eastern Europe.

For observers in Nairobi and beyond, this signals a seismic geopolitical shift. As Washington warms to Moscow and chills towards Brussels, the ripples of this realignment threaten to destabilize the established diplomatic order, raising questions about the future of international borders and the security of smaller nations.

A Meeting of Minds?

Moscow’s endorsement came swiftly after the White House released a document on Friday that sharply criticized the European Union, warning that the bloc faces "civilisational erasure." The language used by the Trump administration appears to have struck a chord with Russian leadership.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov described the policy shift as an encouraging development that mirrors Russia's own worldview. "The adjustments that we see correspond in many ways to our vision," Peskov noted on Sunday, emphasizing a mutual desire for dialogue.

However, the praise came with a caveat characteristic of Moscow's rhetoric. Peskov warned that what he termed the US "deep state" might attempt to sabotage Trump’s agenda, a narrative often used to dismiss diplomatic resistance.

The Diplomatic Squeeze

This rhetorical alignment comes at a critical juncture for the war in Ukraine. While US officials claim a peace deal is in its "final stage," the reality on the ground appears far more fractured. The proposed framework has yet to garner signatures from either Kyiv or Moscow.

The diplomatic traffic has been intense and revealing:

• Moscow Visits: Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, were in the Russian capital earlier this week.
• Florida Talks: A Ukrainian delegation spent three days negotiating with US officials in Florida.
• The "Difficult" Call: Following these meetings, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a two-hour phone call with US officials on Saturday, which insiders described to Axios as "difficult."

Kyiv Looks to Europe

With the White House pushing for a deal that may require Ukraine to cede territory, Zelenskyy is pivoting to European allies for survival. The Ukrainian President is scheduled to visit Downing Street on Monday for a high-stakes quadrilateral meeting.

He will be joined by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. For Kyiv, the objective is clear: securing tangible security guarantees. If Ukraine is forced to renounce control over occupied lands, it needs assurance that the remaining territory will not be swallowed up in a future offensive.

For the Global South, including Kenya, the resolution of this conflict is not merely academic. A stable peace is essential for normalizing global grain and fertilizer markets, which have been volatile since the invasion began. However, a peace dictated by superpowers at the expense of sovereignty sets a precarious precedent for the rest of the world.