The cost of frying a meal in Nairobi is rising, not because we are consuming significantly more, but because the world is charging us a premium for every drop. For the average Kenyan household, already juggling the precarious mathematics of the monthly budget, the latest trade figures offer a sobering explanation for the pinch at the checkout counter.

Fresh disclosures from the Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA) indicate that Kenya’s edible oil import bill swelled to KES 25.61 billion in the quarter ended June 2025. This represents a 6.84% jump from the KES 23.97 billion recorded in the same period last year. Crucially, this spike in cost was not matched by a surge in volume—imports rose only marginally, meaning we are effectively importing inflation.

Paying More for the Same

The devil is in the details. While the bill shot up by over KES 1.6 billion, the actual quantity of oil landing at the Port of Mombasa barely moved. Import volumes ticked up slightly from 182,209 tonnes in 2024 to 183,139 tonnes in 2025.

This disparity points to a harsh reality: the unit cost of edible oil has surged. The AFA attributes this to a "perfect storm" in the international market:

• La Niña Weather Patterns: Adverse weather in Southeast Asia has disrupted harvests in Malaysia and Indonesia, the world’s palm oil baskets.
• Biofuel Demand: A global push for green energy has diverted significant stocks of palm oil into biodiesel production, tightening the supply available for food.
• Rising Consumption: Economic giants like China and India are consuming more, intensifying the competition for limited stocks.

The Palm Oil Predicament

Palm oil remains the undisputed king of Kenyan kitchens, and unfortunately, it is the commodity most exposed to these global shocks. Data shows that palm oil accounted for the lion's share of imports, with 168,418 tonnes entering the country.

Despite a slight drop in volume from the previous year, the value of these palm oil imports rose to KES 23 billion. This single statistic underscores Kenya's vulnerability. When Indonesia sneezes, the Kenyan mama mboga catches a cold. With local production of edible oils meeting only about 34% of our annual demand (estimated at 900,000 tonnes), the country remains tethered to the volatility of international markets.

A Glimmer of Local Hope?

It is not all gloom. The report highlights a shift that suggests local interventions might be slowly taking root. Imports of soybean oil dropped steeply by 32%, a decline the regulator ascribes to increased local production and substitution.

Furthermore, sunflower oil imports more than doubled to 3,909 tonnes, hinting at changing consumer preferences or specific industrial needs. The government’s ongoing Edible Oil Crops Promotion Project, which aims to boost local production of sunflower, canola, and coconut, is racing against time to close the deficit. Until those seeds bear fruit at scale, however, Kenyan consumers must brace for a market where the price of cooking oil is decided thousands of miles away.

As analysts have long warned, food security is not just about availability; it is about affordability. For now, the global market has spoken, and the message is expensive.