Former Cabinet Minister Kipruto Arap Kirwa has sharply criticized President William Ruto’s vision to transform Kenya into a Singapore-like economy, framing it as empty political talk designed for re-election. Kirwa’s critique adds a weighty voice to a growing chorus of skepticism from political, civil, and economic leaders questioning the feasibility of the grand plan.

The comments tap into a national conversation about the administration's economic priorities. For many Kenyans grappling with the high cost of living, the promise of a First-World future feels disconnected from the immediate challenge of putting food on the table. “Anything that Ruto does between now and the next elections, do not believe any statistics,” Kirwa warned, urging public skepticism of government assurances.

The KES 5 Trillion Blueprint

President Ruto has repeatedly anchored his agenda on a KES 5 trillion (approx. $38.5 billion) plan to elevate Kenya to developed status, drawing parallels with Asian Tigers like Singapore, South Korea, and Malaysia. Unveiled during his State of the Nation and Jamhuri Day addresses, the vision rests on four key pillars:

• Investing in education and human capital.
• Transforming the economy from a net importer to a net exporter.
• Massively expanding energy generation to 10,000 MW.
• Modernizing transport and logistics with world-class infrastructure.

“If Singapore, South Korea and Malaysia did it, why not us?” the President has argued, insisting that with discipline and strategic investment, the vision is achievable.

A Gulf Between Two Nations

However, critics point to the vast economic and governance chasm between Kenya and Singapore. The Southeast Asian nation’s success was built on decades of visionary leadership, zero tolerance for corruption, and a focus on human capital—foundations that analysts argue are currently unstable in Kenya. The economic disparity is stark:

• GDP Per Capita: A Singaporean's average income is about 35 to 40 times that of a Kenyan's. Singapore's GDP per capita is approximately $84,700 (approx. KES 11 million), while Kenya's is around $2,000 (approx. KES 260,000).
• Governance: Singapore is renowned for its low corruption and efficiency, while Kenya continues to struggle with graft and political patronage that divert public resources.
• Debt: Kenya’s public debt consumes a significant portion of tax revenue, whereas Singapore maintains a balanced budget and is a net creditor.

Former Chief Justice David Maraga has called the comparison “deeply misleading,” stating that Singapore’s miracle was built on principles like ruthless anti-corruption enforcement and fiscal discipline, which he suggests are lacking.

A Question of Priorities

Civic groups like Bunge La Wananchi have echoed Kirwa's concerns, arguing that the focus on mega-projects ignores the urgent needs of ordinary citizens. They contend that economic gains mean little when nearly 17 million people face food shortages and struggle with high taxes and reduced purchasing power. Governance expert Peter Kagwanja described the narrative as a “repackaging of the hustler, bottom-up agenda” ahead of the 2027 election.

As the administration pushes forward, with the President dismissing critics as “prophets of doom,” the debate intensifies. The ultimate test remains whether this grand vision can translate into tangible improvements for the average Kenyan, or if, as Kirwa alleges, it will fade after the next election cycle.