Proxy Battle in Mt. Kenya East

The Mbeere North constituency by-election, scheduled for Thursday, November 27, 2025, has morphed from a local contest into a pivotal political showdown between two of Kenya's most senior political figures: Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and his predecessor, Rigathi Gachagua. Both leaders have established rival camps in the Embu County constituency, engaging in intense, last-minute campaigns that underscore a deeper struggle for control over the vote-rich Mt. Kenya region.

The by-election was triggered by the appointment of the area's former Member of Parliament, Geoffrey Ruku, as the Cabinet Secretary for Public Service. His move to the Cabinet has set the stage for a fierce contest that is widely viewed as a litmus test of President William Ruto's influence in a region that has shown signs of shifting political allegiances following his public fallout with Mr. Gachagua.

The Contenders and Their Patrons

Deputy President Kindiki is leading the campaign for the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate, Leonard Muriuki, often referred to as 'Wa Muthende'. Framing the election as a choice between development and opposition propaganda, Kindiki has urged residents to align with the Kenya Kwanza administration, arguing that only the government can deliver essential services like roads, schools, and hospitals. He has been accompanied on the campaign trail by CS Ruku, who, despite winning the seat on a Democratic Party (DP) ticket in 2022, is now spearheading the UDA campaign.

On the other side, former Deputy President Gachagua has thrown his weight behind Newton Karish of the Democratic Party (DP), who is the candidate for the United Opposition Alliance. Mr. Gachagua has been conducting extensive door-to-door campaigns and rallies, portraying the election as a symbolic fight to restore the 'respect and dignity of the Embu community'. He is supported by a coalition of opposition figures, including Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, DAP-K's Eugene Wamalwa, and DP party leader Justin Muturi, framing the contest as a united front against the state machinery.

A Campaign Marred by Accusations

The political climate in Mbeere North has grown increasingly tense, with both sides trading sharp accusations. Mr. Gachagua and his allies have alleged the use of state resources and senior government officials to unfairly influence voters through cash handouts and intimidation. Gachagua claimed that 'goons were being ferried to disrupt his events' and that there was a concerted effort to buy votes, a practice he vowed to resist. These concerns were echoed by other opposition leaders who warned against attempts to subvert the will of the people.

Conversely, Deputy President Kindiki has accused Mr. Gachagua of disrespecting and attempting to undermine local UDA leaders, including Embu Governor Cecily Mbarire and CS Ruku. The UDA camp has called for a focus on development over divisive politics. Amid these tensions, the Embu County Security Committee has issued a stern warning against any attempts to cause chaos, confirming that several individuals have been summoned for questioning over inflammatory remarks. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has reportedly identified the constituency as a potential hotspot for volatility.

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

While ostensibly a local affair, the outcome of the Mbeere North by-election will have significant national repercussions. For President Ruto and DP Kindiki, a UDA victory would reaffirm their grip on the Mt. Kenya region and serve as a powerful rebuttal to Gachagua's growing influence since his impeachment in October 2024. It would consolidate Kindiki's position as the pre-eminent political leader in Mt. Kenya East, a sub-region he has been working to consolidate.

For Mr. Gachagua, a win for the opposition-backed Karish would be a major political victory, demonstrating his continued clout and ability to mobilize voters against the government in its own heartland. It would energize the opposition and could accelerate political realignments across the country ahead of the 2027 General Election. The intense focus on this single constituency highlights the high stakes involved in Kenya's evolving political landscape, where local by-elections are increasingly becoming national referendums on leadership and power.