JUBA, SOUTH SUDAN – In a dramatic move that has heightened political tensions in the world's youngest nation, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir Mayardit dismissed his powerful vice president, Benjamin Bol Mel, in a series of decrees read on state television on the evening of Wednesday, 12 November 2025. The decision, for which no official reason was provided, included stripping Bol Mel of his military rank of General, demoting him to Private, and removing him from his influential post as First Deputy Chairperson of the ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM).

The purge also targeted key allies of Bol Mel, including the Governor of the Bank of South Sudan, Dr. Addis Ababa Othow, and the Commissioner General of the National Revenue Authority, Simon Akuei Deng, deepening concerns of a calculated power consolidation by President Kiir. The dismissals come at a precarious time, with the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) reportedly near collapse and fears of renewed conflict growing.

A Meteoric Rise and Fall

Benjamin Bol Mel, born around 1978, was a businessman who experienced a meteoric rise in South Sudanese politics. Educated in Kenya, where he graduated from the United States International University–Africa in Nairobi, he built a vast business empire, notably through construction firms like ABMC Thai-South Sudan Construction Company. These companies secured major state contracts, making him a key figure in the nation's economy.

His proximity to power was solidified through his role as a financial advisor to President Kiir. However, his business dealings attracted international scrutiny. In December 2017, the United States Treasury sanctioned Bol Mel and his companies under the Global Magnitsky Act for alleged corruption and misappropriation of state assets. Despite the sanctions, his political ascent accelerated dramatically in 2025. He was appointed as one of five vice presidents in February, taking over the crucial Economic Cluster from veteran politician James Wani Igga. By May, he was elevated to First Deputy Chairman of the SPLM, a move that positioned him as the heir apparent to the 74-year-old Kiir.

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

The political upheaval in Juba is being watched with significant concern in Nairobi. Kenya has a deep and vested interest in South Sudan's stability, stemming from shared security concerns, extensive economic ties, and its long-standing role as a mediator in the nation's peace processes.

Economic Interests: Kenyan businesses are among the largest foreign investors in South Sudan, particularly in the banking sector, with institutions like KCB Group and Equity Bank having significant operations. Political instability has historically led to massive losses for these banks, forcing branch closures due to hyperinflation and economic meltdown. Renewed conflict would further jeopardize these investments and disrupt cross-border trade. Furthermore, the viability of the critical Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia-Transport (LAPSSET) corridor, a cornerstone of Kenya's Vision 2030 aimed at connecting the region, is heavily dependent on a stable and cooperative government in Juba.

Security and Diplomacy: Kenya has historically borne the brunt of instability in South Sudan, hosting a large number of refugees, primarily in Turkana County. A return to widespread conflict could trigger a new wave of displacement across the border. Diplomatically, Kenya is a key player within the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), which brokered the 2018 peace deal. The current turmoil undermines years of peace-building efforts, including ongoing talks in Nairobi aimed at uniting factions ahead of postponed elections.

A Fragile Peace at Risk

The dismissals occurred against a backdrop of a severely deteriorating political and security situation. A recent UN report noted that the power-sharing arrangements of the R-ARCSS have been "almost entirely eroded," with ceasefire violations and political detentions on the rise. The implementation of the agreement has all but halted, and trust between President Kiir's faction and the opposition, led by First Vice President Riek Machar, has collapsed. Machar himself was charged with treason in September, further fracturing the unity government.

In his first public statement following his dismissal, Bol Mel struck a conciliatory tone, thanking President Kiir for the opportunity to serve and expressing confidence in his leadership. However, reports emerged on Thursday, 13 November 2025, that his Juba residence had been surrounded by security forces and he had been placed under house arrest, though these details remain unconfirmed by official sources. The president's move is widely seen as a decisive strike against a potential rival whose growing influence was perceived as a threat. While it may consolidate Kiir's immediate control, it risks igniting fresh conflict within the ruling elite, leaving the future of the world's youngest nation, and the stability of the wider East African region, hanging in the balance.