Political Earthquake in Juba

South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir Mayardit, in a dramatic and sweeping move, dismissed his influential Vice President, Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel, late on Wednesday, November 12, 2025. The presidential decree, read on the state-run South Sudan Broadcasting Corporation (SSBC), also stripped Bol Mel of his role as the First Deputy Chairman of the ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) and demoted him from the rank of General to Private in the National Security Service. The move sent shockwaves through the nation's political landscape, removing a figure who had a meteoric rise and was widely considered a potential successor to President Kiir.

The purge extended to key figures in the country's economic leadership, widely seen as allies of Bol Mel. Addis Ababa Othow, the Governor of the Bank of South Sudan, and Simon Akuei, the Commissioner General of the South Sudan Revenue Authority, were also relieved of their duties. No immediate reasons were provided in the official decrees for the dismissals, which came just hours after Bol Mel's office had publicly denied rumors of his impending house arrest as “unfounded.”

Succession Politics and Power Consolidation

Analysts suggest the dismissals are a clear sign of President Kiir consolidating power amid internal struggles within the SPLM and ahead of anticipated elections. Bol Mel, a wealthy businessman-turned-politician, was appointed Vice President in February 2025, replacing the veteran politician James Wani Igga. His rapid elevation, including his appointment as SPLM First Deputy Chairman in May and promotion to General in September, fueled speculation that he was being groomed for the presidency. However, his growing assertiveness, regional engagements, and perceived presidential ambitions reportedly unsettled Kiir's inner circle.

Bol Mel's tenure as head of the government's Economic Cluster was also marked by persistent allegations of corruption. He has been under U.S. sanctions since 2017 for alleged corruption, and a September 2025 United Nations report accused companies linked to him in connection with a major road project. While his dismissal might be seen as a move against corruption, it is more widely interpreted as a political maneuver to quell internal dissent and centralize authority within the presidency.

Implications for Kenya and Regional Stability

The leadership shake-up in Juba has significant implications for Kenya, which has long served as a crucial anchor for peace and stability in South Sudan. Kenya played a pivotal role in mediating the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that led to South Sudan's independence and is currently leading renewed peace talks in Nairobi to unite factions ahead of elections. Any slide into further instability in its northern neighbor is a direct concern for Nairobi, impacting security, trade, and the future of joint infrastructure projects like the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia-Transport (LAPSSET) corridor.

The LAPSSET project, a cornerstone of Kenya's Vision 2030, relies heavily on a stable and predictable South Sudan to serve as a key end-user for the Lamu port and the associated oil pipeline. Political volatility in Juba could jeopardize the project's viability and the significant investments made. Furthermore, Kenya hosts a large number of South Sudanese refugees and has deep economic ties with the country, making stability a paramount national interest.

As of Thursday, November 13, 2025, the Kenyan government, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), and the East African Community (EAC) had not issued official public statements specifically addressing Bol Mel's dismissal. This cautious approach may reflect the delicate diplomatic maneuvering required. In previous crises this year, regional bodies and civil society organizations have consistently urged South Sudanese leaders to adhere to the 2018 revitalized peace agreement and resolve differences through dialogue, warning that unilateral actions risk plunging the country back into conflict. Kenya's role as chief mediator will be critical in the coming weeks to ensure the political situation does not derail the fragile peace process. FURTHER INVESTIGATION REQUIRED on official regional responses.

An Uncertain Future

President Kiir's decisive action against a once-trusted ally leaves South Sudan's political future deeply uncertain. The removal of the head of the economic cluster, the central bank governor, and the revenue chief at once creates a significant leadership vacuum in the management of the nation's struggling economy. The move could either be a masterstroke to stabilize his rule by eliminating a potential rival or a catalyst that ignites fresh conflict within the ruling elite. For Kenya and the broader East African region, the events in Juba are a stark reminder of the fragility of peace in the world's youngest nation and the critical need for sustained, unified diplomatic engagement to prevent a return to widespread instability.