A Nation on Edge

A deepening energy crisis is gripping Kenya, marked by increasingly frequent and prolonged power outages that have disrupted daily life and crippled economic activity across the country. The situation escalated in early November 2025 when President William Ruto confirmed that Kenya Power is implementing daily power rationing, locally known as load shedding, to prevent a total collapse of the national grid. This admission has brought to the fore years of what critics call systemic failures, mismanagement, and a lack of strategic foresight by the state agencies entrusted with powering Kenya's future.

According to the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA), Kenya's interconnected power generation capacity stood at 3,192 megawatts (MW) as of June 2025. On paper, this appears adequate to meet the country's peak demand, which hit a record 2,411.98 MW on October 24, 2025. However, the reality on the ground paints a starkly different picture: a significant gap between installed capacity and actual available power, leaving a fragile system with no reserve margin.

The Anatomy of a System Failure

The crisis is not a sudden event but the culmination of long-standing issues across the energy sector. A critical factor is the over-reliance on hydropower, which accounts for nearly a quarter of the installed capacity. This dependence leaves the nation vulnerable to climate change, with erratic rainfall and prolonged droughts significantly reducing water levels in key reservoirs and crippling generation capacity. While heavy rains in early 2025 temporarily boosted hydro generation, this cyclical vulnerability highlights a strategic failure to sufficiently diversify the energy mix.

Compounding the problem is an aging and poorly maintained transmission and distribution network managed by Kenya Power. An EPRA report covering the second half of 2024 revealed that system losses—power lost due to technical faults, aging infrastructure, and illegal connections—averaged a staggering 24.2%, far exceeding the regulator's approved threshold of 17.5%. These inefficiencies mean that nearly a quarter of the power generated never reaches consumers, with the cost ultimately passed on to households and businesses. Reports from the Auditor-General have repeatedly flagged Kenya Power for inefficiencies, including the failure to connect thousands of paying customers and concerns over its financial viability.

Furthermore, critical infrastructure projects have been plagued by long delays. The High Grand Falls Dam, projected to add up to 1,000 MW, has stalled, with the government only recently announcing plans to revive the project after a previous deal was terminated in July 2025. Such delays in bringing new generation sources online have left the country unable to keep pace with an annual electricity demand growth of over 6%.

Economic Fallout and Public Outcry

The economic consequences of the unreliable power supply are severe. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), the backbone of Kenya's economy, are disproportionately affected. Businesses like salons, workshops, and cyber cafes are forced to close during outages or incur crippling costs running on expensive diesel generators. The manufacturing sector, which accounts for over half of the country's electricity consumption, estimates losses in the billions of shillings due to damaged equipment and lost production. This instability deters investment and undermines Kenya's ambition to become a regional economic powerhouse.

The crisis has also led to a surge in businesses investing in their own captive power plants, primarily solar, to ensure operational continuity. The total capacity of these private plants grew by 71.3 MW in the year to June 2025, reaching 603.8 MW. While this demonstrates a lack of faith in the national grid, it also erodes Kenya Power's revenue base, further constraining its ability to invest in necessary upgrades.

Public frustration is palpable, with citizens and business leaders questioning how a monopoly provider can consistently fail to deliver a reliable service. The average duration of power interruptions has been on the rise, with customers experiencing outages for an average of 9.15 hours per month in late 2024, nearly three times the regulatory target.

The Path Forward: Accountability and Investment

In response to the escalating crisis, the Ministry of Energy and EPRA have pointed towards regulatory reforms, including new rules gazetted in 2024 and 2025 aimed at improving efficiency, promoting renewable energy, and attracting private investment into the sector. KenGen, the primary electricity generator, continues to focus on expanding its geothermal and renewable portfolio, which already forms the backbone of the country's generation mix.

However, analysts and stakeholders argue that regulations alone are insufficient without concrete action and accountability. Addressing the crisis requires a multi-pronged approach: urgent investment in modernizing the aging grid to reduce technical losses, a crackdown on electricity theft, and a transparent, accelerated plan to execute long-delayed generation projects. Above all, there is a pressing need for robust oversight and decisive leadership to reform the state agencies at the heart of the sector, ensuring they are managed efficiently and held accountable for powering Kenya's economic and social development.